NHL Week 1 Analytics: 11 Starts, Real or Luck?

NHL week 1 is in the books, and teams have played between one and four games. That is not a sample, that is a rumour. So instead of reading the points column, we went under it: shot attempts, shooting luck, zone time, shot quality and skating data from the NHL’s own tracking system. Points tell you what happened. These numbers help tell you what is likely to keep happening.

All numbers are official NHL statistics and NHL EDGE puck and player tracking data for games from Sept. 29 through Oct. 4, 2026. Each start is compared with the player’s 2025-26 numbers. For more dashboards, see our Hockey Informers analytics hub.

How to read the numbers

CF% (Corsi for): the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts, for and against, that went toward the opponent’s net while a player was on the ice. It is the standard measure of puck possession. 50 percent is even. Relative CF% compares a player with his own team when he is on the bench.
iCF/60: a player’s own shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. It tells you who is actually shooting.
PDO: on-ice shooting percentage plus on-ice save percentage at 5-on-5, shown as 1000 for average. Over the long run almost everyone ends up near 1000, so a very high or very low number is usually luck.
OZ time: NHL EDGE’s measure of how much of a player’s ice time is spent in the offensive zone, with his percentile rank in the league.
High-danger shots: shots on goal from the crease, low slot and net-front areas, as tracked by NHL EDGE.

A note on zone entries: the NHL does not publish zone entries or exits. Those come from hand-tracking projects. NHL EDGE offensive-zone time is the closest official measure, and it is what we use here.

Top performers

Connor McDavid, EDM: 2-7-9, plus-7 in 3 games

Edmonton had 71.9 percent of 5-on-5 shot attempts with McDavid on the ice, 22.2 points better than without him. He spends 52 percent of his ice time in the offensive zone (96th percentile) and his 24.0 mph top skating speed ranks in the 100th percentile. The warning sign is his PDO of 1149: the Oilers are scoring on 23.3 percent of their 5-on-5 shots with him on the ice. The possession is real. The three points a night are not.

Evan Bouchard, EDM: 4-4-8 in 3 games

Bouchard has a 74.4 CF%, the best of any player in this article, and 25.6 shot attempts per 60, a forward’s shooting rate from a defenceman. His hardest shot was 89.0 mph (89th percentile). But only one of his 12 shots came from a high-danger area, and he is shooting 33.3 percent. Point shots do not go in a third of the time. Verdict: the volume holds, the goal pace does not. In pools, he is a sell-high only if someone pays for a 30-goal defenceman.

Paul Cotter, VAN: 4-2-6 in 4 games

This is the clearest case of luck in NHL week 1. Vancouver had only 38.2 percent of 5-on-5 attempts with Cotter on the ice, and just 17.1 percent of his shifts started in the offensive zone. He spends 39.2 percent of his time in the attacking zone (35th percentile). He did score his goals from the right spots, with three of his seven shots coming from high-danger areas, but his on-ice PDO is 1137. Enjoy it, and do not spend a waiver claim chasing it.

Jack Eichel, VGK: 1-5-6 in 3 games

Three of Eichel’s six points came on the power play, and his 5-on-5 numbers are only even: a 49.3 CF%, 10.3 points below Vegas without him, with a heavy defensive deployment (32.5 percent offensive-zone starts). The tracking data is excellent: 23.3 mph top speed (99th percentile) and an 89.7 mph shot (97th). Expect production close to his 1.22 points per game from last season, with the possession numbers rising as his starts even out.

Dylan Guenther, UTA: 3-2-5 in 3 games

All five of Guenther’s points came on the power play. At 5-on-5 his PDO is a normal 1016, and Utah has 61.7 percent of attempts with him on the ice, with 17.1 individual attempts per 60. Utah ranks second in offensive-zone time at even strength. The 66.7 percent power play will cool. The process will not.

Kyle Connor, WPG: 3-2-5 in 2 games

The best buy of the week. Connor has 14 shots, five of them from high-danger areas, and 23.9 attempts per 60. His 5-on-5 PDO is 893: Winnipeg is shooting 4.7 percent with him on the ice. He has five points with bad even-strength luck. When the bounces even out, the production goes up.

Underperformers

Jason Robertson, DAL: 0-0-0, minus-3 in 2 games

This one is luck and process together. Dallas has scored on none of its 5-on-5 shots with Robertson on the ice (PDO 846), which will change. But his 42.8 CF% is 10.6 points below the team without him, he is attempting only 6.7 shots per 60, and his top skating speed (19.8 mph) ranks in the 9th percentile. Last season he had a 50.7 CF% and 96 points. Verdict: wait, but this is the one to watch most closely in week 2.

Auston Matthews, TOR: 1-0-1, minus-1 in 3 games

The underlying numbers say buy. Toronto has a 58.3 CF% with Matthews on the ice, up from 46.9 last season, and five of his 10 shots came from high-danger areas. His on-ice 5-on-5 shooting is 3.7 percent, and his PDO is 953. This is a scorer getting to the right areas with the puck not going in. Verdict: wait, and buy low in pools if you can.

Brady Tkachuk, FLA: 0-0-0 in 3 games

No points with his new team, but the process is strong: a 63.8 CF%, 20.5 attempts per 60, 52.4 percent offensive-zone time (97th percentile) and four high-danger shots. Florida is shooting 0 percent at 5-on-5 with him on the ice. Verdict: wait. This is a player doing everything except finishing.

Mark Scheifele, WPG: 0-0-0, minus-2 in 2 games

Winnipeg is fine with Scheifele on the ice: a 52.6 CF%, 16.4 points better than without him, and 48 percent offensive-zone time. The problem is that he is not shooting: 4.0 attempts per 60 and two shots in two games. His PDO of 857 explains the minus-2. Verdict: mild worry about the shot volume, not the play.

Dustin Wolf, CGY: 0-2, .797 save percentage, 6.01 GAA

The league save percentage in NHL week 1 is .892, and Wolf stopped 47 of 59 shots after a .899 season. The NHL does not publish goals saved above expected, so we compare to league average. The bigger story is in front of him. Calgary has a 55.9 CF% at 5-on-5 and ranks fifth in offensive-zone time, but is shooting 1.4 percent at 5-on-5 with an 833 PDO, the lowest in the league. An 0-3 team playing like a winning one. Verdict: wait on Wolf and on the Flames.

Team surprises

Four NHL week 1 records that the possession numbers either question or explain.

Over: Seattle Kraken (2-1, 13 goals for, 5 against). Seattle has a 43.4 CF% at 5-on-5 and ranks 27th in offensive-zone time, but is shooting 16.2 percent with a .955 save percentage. That is a 1117 PDO, and it rarely lasts.

Over: Anaheim Ducks (2-0). Leo Carlsson (1-4-5) and Cutter Gauthier (2-2-4) are producing, but Anaheim has a 42.9 CF% and ranks 31st of 32 teams in offensive-zone time at even strength. Fourteen of their 41 shots came from high-danger areas, so they are getting quality on few chances. Not a model that holds.

Under: Dallas Stars (0-2, 1 goal for). Dallas has 50.6 percent of 5-on-5 attempts and a .947 save percentage, but is shooting 2.6 percent at 5-on-5. That is the most fixable slump in the league.

Under: Philadelphia Flyers (0-1-2, 4 goals for, 13 against). The Flyers have the league’s worst CF% (33.7) and spend more time in their own zone than any team. Joseph Woll has a .929 save percentage on 84 shots, and he is the reason it is not worse. This is a real problem.

Canadiens check-in

Montreal finished NHL week 1 at 1-0-1: a 3-2 win in Toronto on opening night and a 6-5 overtime loss in Pittsburgh on Oct. 3 (our recap of the Penguins game). More at our Canadiens hub.

The underlying numbers are better than the box score suggests. The Canadiens have 45.8 percent of shots in all situations, which is mostly a result of penalties, but at 5-on-5 they have a 54.9 CF% and a normal 1015 PDO.

Nick Suzuki: 1-3-4, plus-3, a 57.6 CF% and 20.0 attempts per 60. He scored 101 points last season (1.23 per game) and is on pace with sustainable numbers.
Cole Caufield: two goals on six shots, matching his 51-goal pace from last season, but none of his shots came from high-danger areas. That is his trademark, though: he scores from the circles.
Lane Hutson: three assists, a team-high 26:36 a night (20:54 at 5-on-5) and a 59.4 CF%. His on-ice PDO is 947, so the points should rise.
Ivan Demidov: 1-1-2, 48.7 percent offensive-zone time (90th percentile) and an 85.4 mph shot (90th). He plays 11:16 at 5-on-5. More minutes would mean more production.
Jakub Dobes: 1-0-1, an .862 save percentage and a 4.04 GAA on 58 shots, below his .901 from last season and below the league’s .892 this week. Montreal’s 5-on-5 save percentage is .884.

The skaters are winning their minutes. The penalty kill (71.4 percent) and the goaltending are what to watch. Fantasy angle: Hutson’s minutes and possession make him a strong hold in every pool format.

NHL week 1 advanced stats: headline skaters

Player	5v5 CF%	Rel CF%	iCF/60	OZ time (pct)	High-danger shots	PDO
Connor McDavid	71.9	+22.2	8.9	52.0 (96th)	1 of 7	1149
Evan Bouchard	74.4	+28.1	25.6	53.8 (98th)	1 of 12	1151
Paul Cotter	38.2	-5.4	7.3	39.2 (35th)	3 of 7	1137
Kyle Connor	47.1	+6.9	23.9	48.6 (90th)	5 of 14	893
Auston Matthews	58.3	+10.0	10.0	47.0 (82nd)	5 of 10	953
Brady Tkachuk	63.8	+6.0	20.5	52.4 (97th)	4 of 9	1000
Jason Robertson	42.8	-10.6	6.7	44.9 (72nd)	1 of 3	846
Nick Suzuki	57.6	+4.2	20.0	44.7 (70th)	1 of 6	1019
Lane Hutson	59.4	+8.9	10.0	47.1 (87th)	0 of 3	947

NHL week 1 points leaders

Player	Team	GP	G	A	P	Shots	2025-26 P/GP
Connor McDavid	EDM	3	2	7	9	7	1.68
Evan Bouchard	EDM	3	4	4	8	12	1.16
Paul Cotter	VAN	4	4	2	6	7	0.19
Elias Pettersson	VAN	4	2	4	6	7	0.69
Jack Eichel	VGK	3	1	5	6	6	1.22
Kyle Connor	WPG	2	3	2	5	14	1.12
Dylan Guenther	UTA	3	3	2	5	12	0.92
Leon Draisaitl	EDM	3	3	2	5	15	1.49
Vasily Podkolzin	EDM	3	3	2	5	13	0.45
Nathan MacKinnon	COL	2	2	3	5	12	1.59

Ties at five points are broken by goals, then fewer games played. Leo Carlsson, Macklin Celebrini, Clayton Keller and Filip Hronek also have five points.

What to watch in NHL week 2

Tue. Oct. 6, Hurricanes at Canadiens: Montreal’s home opener, against a Carolina team taking 57.5 percent of the shots and sitting at 1-1-1.
Wed. Oct. 7, Oilers at Ducks: the league’s best possession pair against a 2-0 team that ranks 31st in offensive-zone time.
Sat. Oct. 10, Maple Leafs at Avalanche: Matthews, with five high-danger shots and one goal, against a 2-0 Colorado team that has out-scored opponents 14-5.