NHL WIN PROBABILITIES

BlueLine Forecast

Each team’s chance to win (overtime included) and the goals expected, from pre-game betting markets with the bookmaker margin removed. Next to them: record, last 10 games, 5-on-5 shot share (CF%) and PDO, so you can compare what the market expects with what the numbers show.

Today · Oct 13

6:30 PM ET Canadiens game

Buffalo Sabres 3-3-0

41%

Montréal Canadiens 2-2-1

59%

≈ 6.6 goals expected

: BUF; MTL
CF%: 54.8%; 54.6%
PDO: 93.3; 97.6

6:00 PM ET

New Jersey Devils 2-3-0

50%

Detroit Red Wings 1-3-1

50%

≈ 6.3 goals expected

: NJD; DET
CF%: 63.6%; 54.6%
PDO: 94.0; 97.1

6:15 PM ET

Florida Panthers 2-2-2

45%

Columbus Blue Jackets 2-2-0

55%

≈ 5.9 goals expected

: FLA; CBJ
CF%: 55.9%; 50.1%
PDO: 99.4; 100.3

The market favours CBJ, but FLA has driven more of the play at 5-on-5 (CF% 55.9 vs 50.1).

6:45 PM ET

Washington Capitals 3-2-0

42%

Carolina Hurricanes 5-1-1

58%

≈ 6.5 goals expected

: WSH; CAR
CF%: 49.3%; 58.5%
PDO: 103.0; 99.1

7:00 PM ET

Seattle Kraken 4-2-0

48%

Philadelphia Flyers 0-5-2

52%

≈ 5.9 goals expected

: SEA; PHI
CF%: 43.3%; 38.1%
PDO: 109.8; 94.8

7:15 PM ET

Tampa Bay Lightning 4-1-0

59%

New York Rangers 5-2-0

41%

≈ 5.9 goals expected

: TBL; NYR
CF%: 56.0%; 46.7%
PDO: 100.9; 104.3

7:30 PM ET

St. Louis Blues 2-2-1

51%

Ottawa Senators 5-1-0

49%

≈ 5.8 goals expected

: STL; OTT
CF%: 52.2%; 43.4%
PDO: 96.5; 105.1

7:45 PM ET

Vancouver Canucks 2-5-0

35%

New York Islanders 2-3-0

65%

≈ 6.3 goals expected

: VAN; NYI
CF%: 43.2%; 47.0%
PDO: 100.9; 103.9

NYI is favoured, but a PDO of 103.9 with a CF% under 50% points to some puck luck so far.

8:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh Penguins 3-2-1

58%

Chicago Blackhawks 1-5-0

42%

≈ 6.6 goals expected

: PIT; CHI
CF%: 49.7%; 43.4%
PDO: 102.9; 96.1

8:15 PM ET

Minnesota Wild 4-1-1

50%

Winnipeg Jets 3-1-1

50%

≈ 6.5 goals expected

: MIN; WPG
CF%: 49.9%; 46.1%
PDO: 99.6; 99.1

8:30 PM ET

Colorado Avalanche 3-2-0

48%

Dallas Stars 2-2-1

52%

≈ 5.9 goals expected

: COL; DAL
CF%: 53.8%; 48.9%
PDO: 107.1; 107.0

8:45 PM ET

Vegas Golden Knights 5-2-0

54%

Nashville Predators 2-1-2

46%

≈ 6.4 goals expected

: VGK; NSH
CF%: 55.2%; 41.3%
PDO: 98.0; 101.2

9:00 PM ET

Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2-1

41%

Utah Mammoth 4-2-0

59%

≈ 6.8 goals expected

: TOR; UTA
CF%: 49.3%; 57.2%
PDO: 99.3; 99.8

9:45 PM ET

Calgary Flames 0-5-0

39%

Anaheim Ducks 4-1-0

61%

≈ 6.4 goals expected

: CGY; ANA
CF%: 54.0%; 47.7%
PDO: 87.3; 101.1

The market favours ANA, but CGY has driven more of the play at 5-on-5 (CF% 54.0 vs 47.7).

10:30 PM ET

Edmonton Oilers 4-0-1

54%

Los Angeles Kings 0-2-2

46%

≈ 6.3 goals expected

: EDM; LAK
CF%: 51.4%; 48.7%
PDO: 106.7; 95.1

11:00 PM ET

Boston Bruins 4-2-0

53%

San Jose Sharks 3-2-0

47%

≈ 6.4 goals expected

: BOS; SJS
CF%: 50.9%; 43.5%
PDO: 105.3; 94.7

Tomorrow · Oct 14

7:30 PM ET Canadiens game

Montréal Canadiens 2-2-1

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Washington Capitals 3-2-0

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Lines are not posted yet. Check back closer to game time.

: MTL; WSH
CF%: 54.6%; 49.3%
PDO: 97.6; 103.0

8:30 PM ET

Dallas Stars 2-2-1

—

Colorado Avalanche 3-2-0

—

Lines are not posted yet. Check back closer to game time.

: DAL; COL
CF%: 48.9%; 53.8%
PDO: 107.0; 107.1