Habs by the numbers starts this season with a warning label: three games is not a sample, it is a first draft. The Canadiens are 1-1-1 after a 3-2 win in Toronto on Sept. 29, a 6-5 overtime loss in Pittsburgh on Oct. 3 and a 6-4 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes in the Bell Centre home opener on Tuesday. Twelve goals for, 14 against, and a lot of noise in between.
This Habs by the numbers edition skips the points column and goes underneath it: 5-on-5 shot attempts, shooting and save percentages, offensive-zone time and shot location from the NHL’s tracking system. Every number below comes from the official NHL stats API and NHL EDGE through Oct. 6. For more on the team, see our Montreal Canadiens hub.
Hurricanes 6, Canadiens 4: the home opener
Carolina won 6-4 at the Bell Centre on Oct. 6, and the shot clock told the story better than the scoreboard did for 40 minutes. The Hurricanes outshot Montreal 34-20, including 17-4 in the second period, according to the NHL.com game recap.
The first period was chaos. Taylor Hall tipped in a Jackson Blake shot at 2:25, Zachary Bolduc answered at 3:23 and Nick Suzuki one-timed a Chris Kreider pass at 4:27 for a 2-1 lead. Eric Robinson tied it at 9:22, and Bolduc scored his second of the night on the power play at 12:54. Montreal led 3-2 after one despite being outshot 12-6.
The turning point came early in the second. Alexandre Carrier took an interference penalty at 3:14 and Sebastian Aho scored on the power play 42 seconds later to tie it 3-3. Montreal also came up empty on its 5-on-3 time, something Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour singled out afterward, and by the time Mark Jankowski cut across the crease and roofed a backhand at 13:24, Carolina had controlled the period. Hall made it 5-3 at 12:21 of the third. Juraj Slafkovsky scored with Jakub Dobes pulled at 16:57 to make it 5-4, and Andrei Svechnikov closed it with an empty-netter at 18:45.
Dobes made 28 saves on 33 shots. Ivan Demidov did not play; the team announced he is out two to four weeks with a lower-body injury (Canadiens news). Our full night of games is in the NHL recap for Oct. 6, and the clips are in our highlights section.
How to read the numbers
A quick glossary for every Habs by the numbers column:
- CF% (Corsi for): the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts (on goal, missed and blocked) that went toward the opponent’s net with a player on the ice. Fifty percent is even.
- Rel CF%: a player’s CF% minus his team’s CF% when he is on the bench. Positive means the team tilts the ice better with him.
- iCF/60: a player’s own shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. It shows who is actually shooting.
- PDO: on-ice shooting percentage plus on-ice save percentage at 5-on-5. Around 1.000 is normal; well above usually means luck that fades.
- OZ time: the share of a player’s or team’s ice time spent in the offensive zone, measured by NHL EDGE puck and player tracking, with a league percentile.
- High-danger shots: shots on goal from the NHL EDGE high-danger area, roughly the slot and the crease.
The NHL does not publish expected goals, zone entries or zone exits, so we use shot location and offensive-zone time as the closest official proxy for chance quality and territory.
Habs by the numbers: team profile
The short Habs by the numbers version: Montreal is scoring like a top-10 team while losing the shot battle like a bottom-five team. The Canadiens average 4.00 goals per game but are being outshot 30.7 to 23.0 per game, both from the NHL team stats.
| Team metric (5-on-5 unless noted) | 2026-27 (3 GP) | NHL rank | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF% (shot attempts) | 47.9% | 19th | 48.2% |
| Shots on goal for-against | 48-67 (41.7%) | – | – |
| Goals for-against | 7-9 | – | – |
| Shooting % | 14.6% | 4th | 11.3% |
| Save % | .866 | 26th | .906 |
| PDO | 1.012 | 14th | 1.019 |
| Power play (all) | 1-for-10, 10.0% | 24th | 23.1% |
| Penalty kill (all) | 9-for-12, 75.0% | 19th | 78.2% |
| Offensive-zone time (all, EDGE) | 39.5% | 20th | – |
| Shot-attempt differential per game (EDGE) | -7.7 | 28th | – |
The possession number is not alarming on its own. A 47.9 CF% is close to last season’s 48.2, and that team made 106 points. What is different is the shot quality against. At 5-on-5, Montreal has been outshot 67-48 on goal, and Dobes has stopped only 22 of 31 high-danger shots, a .710 rate against a league average of .801, per his EDGE page.
The PDO of 1.012 looks neutral, but it hides two extremes cancelling each other out: a 14.6% shooting rate that will come down and a .866 save percentage that should come up.
Special teams cost them on Tuesday. The power play is 1-for-10 in about 14 minutes of man-advantage time, by our count from the play-by-play, and it spent 55.5% of its time in the offensive zone (22nd). The penalty kill has allowed three goals in roughly 19 minutes shorthanded.
In Habs by the numbers terms, shot location is the interesting part. EDGE credits Montreal with 19 high-danger shots on goal, 23rd in the league and below the average of 24.5, yet six of them went in. That 31.6% conversion rate ranks fifth; the league average is 20.2%. From long range, they have one goal on 15 shots. The Canadiens are finishing their chances at a rate no team holds for long.
Player check
Here is the Habs by the numbers player table, then a verdict on each key name.
| Player | GP | G-A-P | 5v5 CF% | Rel CF% | iCF/60 | OZ time (pctl) | HD shots | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 3 | 2-4-6 | 52.0 | +5.9 | 16.1 | 40.9% (45th) | 1 | 1.108 |
| Cole Caufield | 3 | 2-0-2 | 49.3 | +2.3 | 12.9 | 39.3% (33rd) | 0 | 1.027 |
| Lane Hutson | 3 | 0-4-4 | 56.1 | +15.8 | 10.0 | 42.9% (65th) | 0 | 0.999 |
| Ivan Demidov | 2 | 1-1-2 | 55.1 | +0.3 | 13.3 | 48.7% (92nd) | 1 | 0.900 |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 3 | 1-0-1 | 37.7 | -13.7 | 3.3 | 44.5% (74th) | 2 | 0.947 |
| Zachary Bolduc | 3 | 3-0-3 | 62.7 | +19.6 | 9.7 | 46.7% (85th) | 2 | 1.105 |
| Chris Kreider | 3 | 1-3-4 | 47.0 | -1.1 | 3.7 | 40.1% (38th) | 2 | 1.159 |
| Mike Matheson | 3 | 0-1-1 | 45.2 | -4.3 | 9.9 | 36.8% (11th) | 2 | 0.927 |
| Noah Dobson | 3 | 0-1-1 | 47.3 | -0.9 | 16.5 | 38.3% (22nd) | 0 | 0.917 |
| Alexandre Carrier | 3 | 1-1-2 | 51.3 | +5.0 | 9.2 | 40.8% (47th) | 0 | 1.150 |
CF%, rel CF%, iCF/60 and PDO are 5-on-5 figures from the NHL stats API. OZ time is all situations from NHL EDGE, with the percentile among players at the same position. HD shots are high-danger shots on goal.
Nick Suzuki
Six points in three games, a 52.0 CF% and +5.9 relative, nearly identical to last season’s 52.1 and +5.7. Same process; different scoring rate: his on-ice 5-on-5 shooting is 21.4% and his PDO is 1.108. Half of his six points came at 6-on-5 with the goalie pulled, which says more about late-game desperation than about his line. Verdict: sustainable play, unsustainable pace.
Cole Caufield
Two goals on seven shots, both from mid-range, and zero high-danger shots on goal so far. His iCF/60 is 12.9, down from 16.8 last season, and his even-strength offensive-zone share is 35.1%, sixth percentile among forwards. Verdict: wait.
Lane Hutson
The clearest signal on the roster. Hutson is playing 27:31 a night, the Canadiens control 56.1% of 5-on-5 shot attempts with him on the ice and he is +15.8 relative to the team. His PDO is 0.999, so none of it is luck. Four assists with no goals is just timing. Verdict: sustainable.
Ivan Demidov
In two games he posted a 55.1 CF% and spent 48.7% of his ice time in the offensive zone, 92nd percentile among forwards. His goal came at 6-on-5. The territorial numbers were real; now he is out two to four weeks, and the second line loses its best puck carrier. Verdict: real, on hold.
Juraj Slafkovsky
The worry on this list. His 37.7 CF% is 13.7 points below the team when he sits, and his iCF/60 has fallen to 3.3 from 12.9 last season. He is still getting territory (74th percentile in OZ time) and his top shot speed of 91.5 mph ranks in the 98th percentile, so the tools are there; the shots are not. His one goal came at 6-on-5. Verdict: worry, mildly.
Jakub Dobes
Dobes has started all three games: 1-1-1, .857 save percentage, 4.43 goals-against average, after a .901 in 43 games last season. Nine of the 13 goals against him came from high-danger areas, and he has already faced 31 high-danger shots on goal. Samuel Montembeault has not played yet. Verdict: wait; the shot quality in front of him matters more.
The defence pairings
From the shift charts, the regular pairs are Mike Matheson with Noah Dobson (44 minutes together across three games), Hutson with Carrier (31.6 minutes) and Jayden Struble with Arber Xhekaj (18.5 minutes). Matheson and Dobson are carrying the hardest minutes and losing them: 45.2 and 47.3 CF%, PDOs of .927 and .917 and offensive-zone shares in the 11th and 22nd percentiles. Dobson’s 16.5 iCF/60 is the best on the blue line, so he is shooting, just from distance. Struble and Xhekaj sit at 43.1 and 31.8 CF% in sheltered minutes. Hutson and Carrier are the only pair winning the shot share. Verdict: Hutson-Carrier sustainable, the other two pairs a concern until Kaiden Guhle returns.
Real or luck
Three Habs by the numbers takeaways from the first week:
- Real: Hutson tilts the ice. A +15.8 relative CF% with a normal PDO is the most trustworthy number Montreal has produced.
- Luck: three of the 12 goals came at 6-on-5, and the team is converting 31.6% of its high-danger shots. Strip those away and the offence looks a lot more ordinary.
- Real, and a problem: 48-67 in 5-on-5 shots on goal and -7.7 shot attempts per game (28th). Carolina’s 17-4 second period was not an outlier in direction, only in size.
What to watch
Nashville visits the Bell Centre on Thursday, Oct. 8 at 7 p.m. ET, and Detroit follows on Saturday, Oct. 10, per the Canadiens schedule. Three Habs by the numbers items to track: whether the 5-on-5 shot share climbs back toward 50%, whether the power play turns its offensive-zone time into goals, and whether the Dobes high-danger save rate drifts back toward the league average.
On the injury front, Demidov is out two to four weeks. Oliver Kapanen (lower body) has missed all three games and was expected to be out until at least Oct. 8. Kaiden Guhle (groin) is listed out but was described as close to returning on Oct. 5, according to the CBS Sports injury report. Carrier, day-to-day after playing only 8:32 in Pittsburgh, returned and played 18:11 on Tuesday.
Pool angle: the Habs by the numbers read for poolies is simple. If a pool mate is selling Hutson because he has no goals, buy. Bolduc’s three goals on five shots and Kreider’s 1.159 PDO are the numbers most likely to cool, so do not pay for them at full price.
Habs by the numbers returns every few weeks as the sample grows. More breakdowns live in our analytics section.
Sources
- NHL.com: Hurricanes at Canadiens game recap, Oct. 6, 2026
- NHL.com Gamecenter: CAR at MTL
- Canadiens: Ivan Demidov out 2-4 weeks
- NHL EDGE: Montreal Canadiens team tracking data
- NHL stats API: team percentages, 2026-27
- NHL stats API: skater 5-on-5 percentages, 2026-27
- NHL API: CAR at MTL play-by-play
- CBS Sports: Canadiens injury report
