NHL Week 2 Analytics: Matthews' 9 Points and 0-5 Flames

NHL week 2 gave us more evidence than the opener, but most teams have still played only four to seven games, so treat every number here as a lean, not a verdict. Auston Matthews turned last week’s bad luck into nine points, Calgary is winless while out-shooting people, and Seattle keeps winning games it does not control. Here is which of those stories the underlying numbers back up.

All figures are official NHL statistics and NHL EDGE tracking data. Week numbers cover Oct. 5 to 11, 2026; season-to-date numbers run through Oct. 11 and are labelled. For dashboards, see the Hockey Informers analytics hub and our Oct. 11 NHL recap.

How to read the numbers

CF% (Corsi for): the share of 5-on-5 shot attempts that went toward the opponent’s net with a player on the ice. 50 is even.
Rel CF%: his CF% minus the team’s CF% when he is on the bench.
iCF/60: the player’s own 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 minutes.
PDO: on-ice 5-on-5 shooting percentage plus save percentage, shown with 1000 as average. Extremes almost always drift back.
OZ time: NHL EDGE’s share of a player’s or team’s time spent in the offensive zone, with a league percentile or rank.
High-danger shots: shots on goal from the crease, low slot and net-front areas, as tracked by NHL EDGE.

The NHL publishes no zone entries, exits or goals saved above expected, so we use EDGE offensive-zone time as the proxy for territory and compare goalies with the league-average save percentage: .894 for NHL week 2 and .893 for the season.

NHL week 2 top performers

Auston Matthews, TOR: 3-6-9, plus-3 in 3 games

Last week we called Matthews a buy-low: Toronto was shooting 3.7 percent at 5-on-5 with him on the ice. This week the puck went in: a 53.7 CF%, plus-9.1 relative, 19.3 attempts per 60 and 15.3 percent on-ice shooting. For the season, eight of his 21 shots have come from high-danger areas, and his 90.1 mph top shot ranks in the 95th percentile. Three of the nine points came on the power play and he shot 27.3 percent, so three points a night will not last. The scoring will: his season PDO is still a modest 988.

Brandon Hagel, TBL: 4-2-6, plus-3 in 3 games

The most convincing line of NHL week 2. Hagel put 17 shots on goal in three games, attempted 26.1 shots per 60 and drove a 63.6 CF%, plus-8.2 relative, on a below-average 958 PDO. He produced six points without help from the bounces. Nine of his 26 shots are high-danger. Verdict: sustainable, a hot start to hold at full price.

Sebastian Aho, CAR: 3-4-7, plus-4 in 4 games

Carolina went 4-0-0 with 22 goals, and Aho drove it with a 59.4 CF% and a normal 1002 PDO. The interesting part is deployment: only 20 percent of his 5-on-5 zone starts this week came in the offensive zone, yet he spends 50.1 percent of his time there this season (97th percentile). The soft spot: only five of 24 shots from high-danger areas and 25 percent shooting. Expect fewer goals, same strong play.

Alexis Lafrenière, NYR: 5-2-7, plus-3 in 3 games

Five goals on six shots, and it is mostly luck. His on-ice PDO was 1182, the Rangers shot 26.6 percent at 5-on-5 with him out there, and he attempted only 8.2 shots per 60. The positives are real but smaller: a 56.4 CF% this week and 48.9 percent offensive-zone time this season (95th percentile). Only one of his five season goals came from a high-danger area. Fantasy angle: sell if someone in your pool pays for a 40-goal pace.

Tim Stützle, OTT: 4-3-7, plus-4 in 4 games

Stützle scored four times on nine shots, but his 5-on-5 numbers were below water: a 47.5 CF%, minus-2.4 relative, 8.5 attempts per 60 and a 1085 PDO. His 53.8 CF% last season says possession returns. The 44.4 percent shooting will not. Verdict: real player, unreal week.

Jack Eichel, VGK: 2-4-6, plus-4 in 3 games

In NHL week 1 we said Eichel’s possession would rise once his starts evened out. It did: Vegas took 64.6 percent of 5-on-5 attempts with him on the ice, 11.6 points better than without him, on a 1062 PDO. He has 12 points in six games, seven of 18 shots from high-danger areas and a 23.3 mph top speed (98th percentile). Sustainable, minus a few power-play points.

NHL week 2 underperformers

Sidney Crosby, PIT: 0-0-0, minus-6 in 4 games

This is the one that worries us. Crosby got 72.9 percent offensive-zone starts at 5-on-5 this week and still took only 40.8 percent of the attempts, 11.5 points worse than without him. The 896 PDO is bad luck, and seven high-danger shots without a goal will turn. But sheltered starts with negative possession is a process problem. Verdict: worry a little.

Kevin Lankinen, VAN: 0-3-0, .717 save percentage

Lankinen allowed 13 goals on 46 shots this week against a league average of .894, and he is at .786 on 131 shots for the season after .875 last year. The team in front of him is part of it: Vancouver ranks 30th in 5-on-5 CF% at 43.3 percent and spends more time in its own zone at even strength than every team but Philadelphia. He will bounce back somewhat, but the workload will not ease soon. Verdict: worry.

Brady Tkachuk, FLA: 0-0-0 in 2 games, no points all season

Second week on this list, same verdict. Tkachuk owns a 60.2 CF% for the season, spends 50.4 percent of his time in the offensive zone (98th percentile) and has five high-danger shots. Florida has scored on zero percent of its 5-on-5 shots with him on the ice. Verdict: wait. Fantasy angle: buy low if his pool manager is frustrated.

Robert Thomas, STL: 0-1-1 in 3 games

The possession is excellent, a 62.6 CF% and plus-12.1 relative, but Thomas is not shooting. He has five shots in five games and 8.6 attempts per 60 for the season, and the Blues’ season PDO with him on the ice is 907. The luck will even out, but a point-per-game player needs more of the puck himself. Verdict: wait.

Cutter Gauthier, ANA: 0-0-0, minus-3 in 3 games

A 41-goal scorer last season, Gauthier is still shooting, with 23.2 attempts per 60, and his 785 PDO this week is unsustainable for anyone. The real flag is shot quality: just one of his 17 shots this season came from a high-danger area, and his even-strength offensive-zone time sits in the 17th percentile. Verdict: wait on the goals, but watch where he shoots from.

Team surprises

All team numbers below are season to date at 5-on-5, with EDGE offensive-zone time at even strength.

Over: Seattle Kraken, 4-2-0

Seattle has the league’s highest PDO at 1098, shooting 17.1 percent at 5-on-5, third highest. Underneath that, the Kraken rank 29th in CF% at 43.3 percent and 31st in offensive-zone time. That rarely survives a month.

Over: New York Rangers, 5-2-0

The Rangers rank 25th in CF% at 46.7 percent, but their .939 team save percentage at 5-on-5 is fourth best and their PDO of 1043 ranks sixth. Igor Shesterkin (.927) can carry a lot, but not a 46 percent possession team forever.

Under: Calgary Flames, 0-5-0

The Flames have the league’s worst PDO at 873, built on a .824 save percentage at 5-on-5, the lowest in the league. Their process is fine: a 54.0 CF% (10th) and 11th in offensive-zone time. Calgary is the clearest bounce-back candidate in the NHL.

Under: Buffalo Sabres, 2-3-0

Buffalo ranks sixth in CF% at 56.3 percent and fifth in offensive-zone time, but its .844 save percentage at 5-on-5 is second worst, for a PDO of 913.

The market vs the numbers

The NHL.com Canadian odds feed had no pre-game lines for upcoming games when we ran this, so standings points percentage stands in for the market’s view. Informational only. For daily, neutral win chances, see BlueLine Forecast.

New Jersey Devils (.500 points percentage): the record says average; the Devils lead the league with a 61.3 CF% and rank eighth in offensive-zone time. They also shoot 4.4 percent at 5-on-5, the lowest in the NHL, for a 945 PDO. No team’s results lag its process more.
Anaheim Ducks (.800): the opposite case. The 4-1-0 Ducks have a 47.7 CF% (22nd) and rank 25th in offensive-zone time. With a normal 1011 PDO, this looks like a small sample of close wins.
Detroit Red Wings (.300): at 1-3-1, Detroit has a 54.6 CF% (eighth) and shoots 5.0 percent at 5-on-5, fourth lowest. That is a middle-of-the-pack team, not a bottom-five one.

Canadiens check-in

Montreal went 1-2-0 in NHL week 2 and is 2-2-1 on the season. They lost 6-4 to Carolina and 5-2 to Nashville, then beat Detroit 1-0 in a shootout, with a 54.4 CF% but a 952 PDO for the week. For the season they rank ninth in CF% (54.6) and sixth in even-strength offensive-zone time, so the process is ahead of the record. More on the team at our Canadiens hub.

Nick Suzuki: 2-1-3, a 58.6 CF% and plus-6.2 relative this week. He has seven points in five games and 45.8 percent offensive-zone time (82nd percentile). Only one of 12 shots has been high-danger, so the 25 percent shooting will cool.
Cole Caufield: 0-0-0 on 13 shots this week, with a 61.8 CF% and plus-10.9 relative. The concern is shot location: only three of his 19 shots this season came from high-danger areas. For last season’s 51-goal scorer, that is a wait, not a worry.
Lane Hutson: one assist this week, but the best possession numbers on the team. He played 26:54 a night, with a 65.7 CF% and plus-20.6 relative, and spends 48.8 percent of his time in the offensive zone (96th percentile). Montreal’s on-ice PDO with him was 926. Fantasy angle: points follow numbers like these, so hold.
Ivan Demidov: did not play. The Canadiens announced on Oct. 6 that he will miss two to four weeks with a lower-body injury.
Juraj Slafkovský: 1-0-1, minus-3 on 12 shots, with a 50.5 CF% and minus-5.8 relative this week. The tracking data is better: 48.9 percent offensive-zone time (95th percentile), a 23.1 mph top speed (97th) and a 91.5 mph shot (97th). Montreal has no 5-on-5 goals with him on the ice yet. That will change.
Goaltending: Jacob Fowler started twice and stopped 45 of 48 shots, a .938 save percentage, including all 30 in Saturday’s shootout win. Jakub Dobes stopped 27 of 32 in the Carolina loss and sits at .856 for the season, well below the league’s .893.

NHL week 2 advanced stats: headline skaters

Season to date through Oct. 11. 5-on-5 numbers from NHL Stats, OZ time and high-danger shots from NHL EDGE.

Player	5v5 CF%	Rel CF%	iCF/60	OZ time (pct)	High-danger shots	PDO
Auston Matthews	55.3	+9.0	15.1	45.0 (76th)	8 of 21	988
Brandon Hagel	64.4	+12.1	27.5	43.5 (64th)	9 of 26	1005
Sebastian Aho	62.8	+6.0	16.8	50.1 (97th)	5 of 24	978
Alexis Lafrenière	50.3	+4.9	11.0	48.9 (95th)	6 of 14	1143
Tim Stützle	45.2	-2.6	8.5	45.3 (78th)	3 of 11	1143
Jack Eichel	57.2	+1.0	16.9	45.8 (81st)	7 of 18	1020
Sidney Crosby	44.2	-8.1	16.7	47.1 (89th)	7 of 16	976
Brady Tkachuk	60.2	+4.6	15.8	50.4 (98th)	5 of 12	916
Cutter Gauthier	48.8	+1.5	23.2	43.7 (66th)	1 of 17	931
Nick Suzuki	58.2	+5.4	16.8	45.8 (82nd)	1 of 12	1023
Cole Caufield	57.5	+4.5	16.7	45.6 (80th)	3 of 19	966
Lane Hutson	63.2	+16.2	11.1	48.8 (96th)	0 of 11	940
Juraj Slafkovský	52.5	-2.9	8.5	48.9 (95th)	4 of 15	966

NHL week 2 points leaders

Player	Team	GP	G	A	P	Shots	2025-26 P/GP
Auston Matthews	TOR	3	3	6	9	11	0.88
William Nylander	TOR	3	3	5	8	10	1.22
Alexis Lafrenière	NYR	3	5	2	7	6	0.70
Tim Stützle	OTT	4	4	3	7	9	1.04
Sebastian Aho	CAR	4	3	4	7	12	1.01
Brandon Hagel	TBL	3	4	2	6	17	1.04
Jack Eichel	VGK	3	2	4	6	12	1.22
Nikita Kucherov	TBL	3	0	6	6	3	1.71

Thirteen players had five points, including Nathan MacKinnon and Kirill Kaprizov.

What to watch in NHL week 3

Tue. Oct. 13 and Sat. Oct. 17, Sabres at Canadiens: two meetings with a Buffalo team that ranks sixth in CF% with a 913 PDO.
Thu. Oct. 15, Kraken at Lightning: the league’s highest PDO against Hagel and a Tampa Bay team taking 56.0 percent of the attempts.
Sun. Oct. 18, Hurricanes at Flames: Carolina, first in even-strength offensive-zone time, against a winless Calgary team with better possession than its record.

NHL Week 2 Analytics: Matthews’ 9 Points and 0-5 Flames