Should the Canadiens revisit a trade for Matthew Knies?

Since the trade deadline came and went without the Montreal Canadiens doing much, many fans were left wondering if a move might have pushed them further in the playoffs. The long-standing rumour was that Montreal put forth a mammoth offer for Toronto forward Matthew Knies, but it never came to fruition.

Fast forward to the end of the regular season. MLSE president Keith Pelley in passing mentions the Canadiens great rebuild and specifically mentions prospect Michael Hage, again kicking off a storm of speculation about the potential Knies trade weeks earlier. Jump ahead to the present day, and Dave Pagnotta along with Elliotte Friedman finally gave everyone the answers they were looking for. The Canadiens had a trade deal for Knies that included two first-round picks, an unnamed prospect, and Alexander Zharovsky.

The deal was submitted at 3:01 PM, and therefore didn’t get accepted. It remains unclear which side of the deal failed to get the ball over the goal line, which could explain Keith Pelley and Kent Hughes exchanging shade during their post-season press conferences.

Lets jump right into the basic stuff with Knies and why he might have been so appealing to the Canadiens as they sought a playoffs berth in early March. At 6’3″. 231 pounds and 23 years old, Knies has a contract running until 2031 with a cap hit of $7,750,000 a year. That all fits right into the contending window that Montreal was looking to open up.

Despite Toronto being an abject disaster on and off the ice this year, Knies posted 23 goals and 43 assists. In his 240 career NHL games, he’s tallied 67 goals and 93 assists, with his yearly production continuing to increase each season after entering the league.

From a physical and lineup-fit perspective, Knies makes a ton of sense as you could easily slot him next to Nick Suzuki on the top line, or opposite Ivan Demidov on the second line to give the Canadiens a stacked top six to work with. The one drawback to this is that it still leaves the Canadiens still potentially looking for a more stable second-line centre option, but now with two locked in wingers on the second line. There then becomes the question of using the limited cap space available to them this off-season, with Knies and his deal taking up almost all of their remaining $10.9 million. This can obviously be aided depending on the result of the likely Brendan Gallagher trade that will be coming down the pipe.

Toronto was in obvious distress last year due in part to the lengthy absence of Auston Matthews and his various injuries, alongside the disastrous coaching reign of Craig Berube. On the surface, things perhaps don’t look the best, but there’s a player there that the Canadiens very clearly value, and might be one that can push them to their next phase.

Taking a glance at just this season in Toronto presents a stark image about Knies’s play, one where he isn’t really driving the offence and is an active detriment on defence. However, given the state of the Leafs across the board, it’s not hard to believe that this is the outlier season in regards to his overall level. If we look at a three-year sample, the numbers tend to support this argument.

Across a three year sample of data it becomes clear that Knies had been a prominent offensive player for the Leafs, with his ability to put the puck in the net at a pace that outweighs his potential defensive misgivings. That last point is one to maybe keep an eye on, however, as at even strength he is probably not someone the Habs should be utilizing in a shutdown role of any sort.

Knies is maybe not the strongest driver at even strength in terms of shot generation, but he has an incredible knack for putting pucks in the net without needing a ton of actual chance generation. Over three years it also becomes clear that on the power play he is an asset, and with some proper support could bring that over to the five-on-five portion of the game as well.

Thanks to All Three Zones we can get a look at what Knies fully brings to the table when he’s on the ice. He didn’t generate a lot of shots or set up his teammates. However, he did enter the offensive zone with control of the puck and generated scoring chances. He drove through the middle of ice to create those looks for teammates. His game is mostly about generating off the rush, with little of his offence coming from sustained pressure in the offensive zone, though that could be more of a team issue than an individual one.

Seeing the type of player he has been, is Knies worth parting with two first-round picks, Alexander Zharovsky, and what has been reported to a defence prospect, specifically one of Bryce Pickford and Adam Engström? That might depend on where you think the Montreal Canadiens are in their contending window, and if Knies is a player that pushes them closer to being a real Stanley Cup contender. Given the fact he’s a bona fide top-six winger already and is just entering his prime it makes sense to add someone of his calibre to this franchise as it stands. Given where Montreal is in terms of competing, two first-round picks who are at best a few years off from even turning pro doesn’t help at the start of the current window. Alexander Zharovsky might be the one that stings the most as he followed up Ivan Demidov’s KHL rookie of the year campaign by claiming that award as well, but again the question is: how far is the young Russian from becoming a full-time NHL player, and does it fit Montreal’s timeline?

Above anything else is whether or not Toronto would even entertain this offer as it stands right now. With a new management team in place and now the first-overall pick when there was a question due to a conditional trade if Toronto would even hold a first-rounder this summer at the time of the trade deadline, the asking price for Knies is likely going up. Knies would be one of the main options to play with McKenna next season, and the new brass likely sees it’s lottery win as a chance to accelerate a rebuild rather than take its first steps in that process. It truly doesn’t make much sense for the Leafs to jettison one of their few young assets with a rebuild looming. They also just watched the Canadiens advance to the final four, and may not wish to be the organization that helps push them to the next level.

Whether this trade is pulled off or not, it signals that Kent Hughes and the Canadiens are ready to take that final part of their rebuild forward. They’ve gone beyond stockpiling draft picks and giving the young prospects time to find their way, now looking to turn those assets into players who can help the NHL team immediately.

The aim is now the Stanley Cup, not just simply making the playoffs. That means the prospects we’ve come to know over the rebuilding years may be moved so the NHL club can achieve that goal.