Unmasked: ‘.900 is the new .915 or .920’ when it comes to save percentage

Kuemper, 35, already hinted at the biggest reasons for the recent decline, which were covered in detail in this space last season. Shot totals are down almost 7.5 per game from a 63.3 average in 2021-22 to 55.9. They are down four shots per game during the past two seasons, in part because of more accurate tracking and stricter measurements by NHL statisticians. 

As Kuemper also mentioned, NHL teams are focusing instead on creating more dangerous scoring chances with screens and east-west passing plays that force a goalie to move before taking a shot. As a result, the percentage of more difficult saves has risen. The old-school maxim of any shot is a good shot rarely applies in today’s NHL. 

With those shifts, it’s no surprise save percentage continues to decline. 

“When I came into the League, it was all about ‘put the puck on net,’ at least 30 shots a game,” said Andrei Vasilevskiy, in his 12th season with the Tampa Bay Lightning. “Nowadays it’s more like 15 shots and the skilled guys are not shooting the puck, they want to put the puck in the net with all the backdoors and fancy plays. But over the years, I’m a lot more comfortable with it now.”

That’s not to say Vasilevskiy, who last season said “guys don’t waste shots” anymore because low-quality chances are increasingly viewed like a turnover, doesn’t still prefer the games when he is busier, but he has learned to manage the slower nights differently. 

“It’s hard to stay mentally in those games, especially when it could be 15 shots and 12 scoring chances,” said Vasilevskiy, who has a .912 save percentage in 50 appearances this season. “That’s why I don’t look at the shot clock during the period.”

NHL goalies are trying to do the same when it comes to save percentage.

“It’s hard not to look at stats, no question about it, because that’s what people judge you on,” said Kings goalie Anton Forsberg, who has a .902 save percentage in 29 appearances. “But at the end of the day, I can tell which games I haven’t played well and which games I have played well. There can be games I let in five and it’s like, ‘OK, I felt good tonight’ and you take that feeling out of that game. 

“Focusing a lot on the feeling has been my biggest thing this year and that kind of separates you from the numbers. It’s not going to be .900 every night. Back in the day you could let in four and still have a .900. Let in four now, you probably have an .800 save percentage. At the end of the day, you have to look at ‘What did I do out there? How did I feel?’ and move on. Otherwise, if you focus on the stats, especially if you have the old mentality of a .910 means you’re having a rough year, you’re going to beat yourself up day in and day out.”