Salary Cap Deep Dive: Montreal Canadiens – Pro Hockey Rumors
Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those who don’t often see struggles and front office changes.
As we do each year, PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2026-27 season, though in a slightly different format than before. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia. We’re currently covering the Atlantic Division, next up are the Canadiens.
2026-27
Upper Limit: $104MM
Current Cap Charge: $94,216,076
Cap Space: $9,783,924
Potential Bonuses: $4.35MM ($1.5MM to $2MM likely to be reached)
Dead Cap: $5,184,410 (2025-26 bonus carryover penalty-$1,934,410, retention on Brendan Gallagher-$3.25MM)
Still to Sign: F Zachary Bolduc, D Arber Xhekaj
Bolduc had a quieter first season with Montreal compared to his final season with St. Louis. He was shuffled around the lineup and was even scratched at times. Last month, it was reported that two scenarios were being considered: a two-year bridge and a five-year offer. The former should check in around $3.5MM per season while the latter would likely surpass the $5MM mark.
Xhekaj somewhat surprisingly opted not to file for salary arbitration and clearly, the two sides haven’t bridged the gap. His ATOI dropped to just 11:25 per game last season and went even lower in the playoffs to just over eight minutes a night. Clearly, a long-term deal isn’t going to be feasible so it’ll be a short-term pact. Realistically, a one-year deal worth a little above his $1.3MM qualifying offer would seemingly make sense but if that would have gotten it done, it’d be done already. A settlement in the $2MM range could be the solution.
Expiring Contracts (RFA): F Ivan Demidov ($940,833 + $3.5MM in bonuses – already extended), F Oliver Kapanen ($942,500 + $850K in ‘A’ bonuses), F Alex Newhook ($2.9MM), D Jayden Struble ($1,412,500)
Newhook is coming off an injury-riddled year and still hasn’t surpassed 35 points in a single season. However, he had a solid postseason showing and played close to a 50-point pace in 2025-26. He’ll be arbitration-eligible next summer and with where the cap is going, he could push past $5MM on his next deal, one that’s likely to be a shorter-term or medium-term pact. Kapanen had some ups and downs last season but still managed 22 goals in his rookie year. If he’s deployed in the top six again, he could have a chance at reaching some of his ‘A’ bonuses but maxing them out is unlikely. A bridge for him could wind up past the $3MM mark with a long-term pact coming in around double that amount.
Demidov has already extended so we’ll just look at the bonuses and cover the contract later. He’s likely to max out again on the $1MM in ‘A’ bonuses. He’d need to be one of the top scorers in the league to land the remaining ‘B’ bonuses which seems unlikely.
Struble has bounced between the sixth and seventh defender roles over the last couple of years. Being arbitration-eligible could carry some risk if he stays in that role this season but his price tag will likely come in around where Xhekaj’s ultimately lands.
Expiring Contracts (UFA): F Josh Anderson ($5.5MM), D Alexandre Carrier ($3.75MM), F Kirby Dach ($3.6MM), F Phillip Danault ($5.5MM), Sam Montembeault ($3.15MM)
Anderson has not lived up to his contract in terms of his regular season production as he has struggled to reach 30 points a year. However, he brings a lot of physicality and his playoff play has been rather valuable. With that in mind, while his production suggests he should be more in the $3.5MM range, it’s likely he’ll check in closer to $4.5MM per season on his next deal. Danault’s offensive production dropped sharply last year and he’s a third or fourth center at this stage of his career. Even so, the market for those types of players has pushed past $4MM and he could very well get that on a short-term pact.
Dach was injured enough to receive a two-way qualifying offer, one the Canadiens were able to leverage to get him to take a bit less on a guaranteed contract. It’s a last-chance opportunity for him. If he can stay healthy and bounce back, he could very well push past $5MM per season in a market desperate for impact centers. But if his injury history continues, he could be bouncing around year-to-year looking for pillow deals. Even so, he could still get a bit more than his current salary in that scenario.
2027-28
Projected Upper Limit: $113.5MM
Current Cap Charge: $74,028,408 (12 players signed)
Cap Space: $39,471,592
Potential Bonuses: $500K (all could be reached)
Dead Cap: None yet but there could be a bonus carryover charge
Montreal has basically spent the projected cap increase on Demidov’s extension. Having pricier deals like Anderson’s and Danault’s coming off the books gives GM Kent Hughes a lot more financial flexibility. If their plan is to have a few prospects move up to replace some of the expiring deals, they will have the ability to try to make a splash to add to their roster.
Expiring Contracts (RFA): G Jacob Fowler ($945,833 + $500K in ‘A’ bonuses)
Fowler may not be a full-timer on Montreal’s roster this season but he should be in 2027-28. Even if he’s in the backup role, the price tag for a good young second-stringer is up to $2MM per year on a bridge deal and could be a little higher two years from now. There’s also a chance of a long-term pact, that would probably run closer to $8MM as starter money.
Expiring Contracts (UFA): F Alexandre Texier ($2.5MM)
Texier terminated his contract midseason with St. Louis after clearing waivers and signed with Montreal, then did well enough for an extension worth more than the contract he just exited. He was up and down the lineup with the Canadiens and that should continue. Unless he can lock down a full-time middle-six role, there may not be much more wiggle room to move up on the salary scale, especially given how other players with similar numbers to him have been squeezed in free agency this summer.
2028-29
Forecasted Upper Limit: $123MM
Current Cap Charge: $70,582,575 (10 players signed)
Cap Space: $52,417,425
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: None
If Fowler winds up bypassing the bridge deal, his new contract would take up most of the jump in the Upper Limit. If he’s bridged, they’ll have enough wiggle room to try to add another piece.
Expiring Contracts (RFA): None
Expiring Contracts (UFA): F Jake Evans ($2.85MM)
Evans opted to extend ahead of the 2025 trade deadline, acknowledging he might be leaving money on the table to do so. The price tag for players like him is starting to creep toward the $4MM mark, especially as a viable penalty killer. He’ll be 33 when this deal ends and a jump past $4MM on another four-year term should be doable.
2029-30
Forecasted Upper Limit: $133.5MM (8.5% increase)
Current Cap Charge: $67,732,575 (9 players signed)
Cap Space: $65,767,425
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: None
While there may be other prospects needing second contracts at this point (depending on when they sign), as things stand, the Canadiens should be able to afford to retain Evans and still have room to add. If a key currently unsigned youngster winds up with an expiring deal at this point, most of the remaining cap room from the increase could go to them instead.
Expiring Contracts (RFA): None
Expiring Contracts (UFA): G Jakub Dobes ($965K in 2026-27, $5,357,575 from 2027-28 through 2029-30), F Nick Suzuki ($7.875MM)
After they lost Jesperi Kotkaniemi via offer sheet to Carolina, former GM Marc Bergevin wasted little time making sure Suzuki wouldn’t have the same outcome, signing him to this deal six weeks later. It has worked out quite well for Montreal as Suzuki has emerged as a legitimate top-line two-way center; he’s coming off a Selke Trophy and a 101-point season. Top-line players are going up in price in a hurry now; top-line centers are getting even more expensive. At the moment, it certainly looks possible that Suzuki could double his current price tag on his next deal. If he has another 100-point season or two in him over the next four years, he could do even better than that.
Dobes played his first full NHL season in 2025-26 and by the end of it, he took over as Montreal’s starter and helped carry them to the Eastern Conference Final, earning himself a three-year extension with a tidy raise. If he is established as a sure-fire starter by the end of this deal, he could be pushing toward $9MM on a long-term pact on his next agreement.
Signed For 2030-31 And Beyond
For that season, there will be a new CBA in place so trying to forecast the cap and cap space basically becomes a guessing game. Accordingly, we’ll go back to the old Deep Dive format for players signed beyond the 2030-31 campaign.
F Cole Caufield ($7.85MM through 2030-31)
F Ivan Demidov ($9.15MM from 2027-28 through 2034-35)
D Noah Dobson ($9.5MM through 2032-33)
D Kaiden Guhle ($5.55MM through 2030-31)
D Lane Hutson ($8.85MM through 2033-34)
D Mike Matheson ($6MM through 2030-31)
F Juraj Slafkovsky ($7.6MM through 2032-33)
Demidov will become Montreal’s top-paid forward after the upcoming season with a contract that might have looked light a week after it was signed with how the market moved after July 1st. The Canadiens are clearly banking on him becoming a top-line forward; his rookie season shows that the upside is there. However, even if he ultimately settles in around the 70-point range (just slightly more than his rookie year), this deal should age well with how much salaries have shot up. It’s not crazy to think he could double this price tag if he lives up to expectations.
Caufield signed for just below Suzuki with Hughes trying to use the captain’s contract as the benchmark, a strategy that held for a few years, at least. He had a breakout showing last season and as long as he’s putting up 30-plus goals per year, the back end of this contract will hold up well. He’ll be in line for several million more per season on a long-term pact. Slafkovsky’s deal carried some risk given that he hadn’t broken out offensively when he signed but if he stays close to the 73 points he put up last year, they’ll get a great return here. If he’s still a top-line power forward when this contract ends, doubling his price tag is a real possibility.
Dobson is the one player in Montreal’s core who was acquired and signed when he was close to unrestricted free agency. This is currently low-end number one money and he’s not in that role with the Canadiens but with the increase in contracts coming, Montreal should still get value here. He’ll be 33 when this deal ends so a raise and at least a medium-term contract could be doable.
Hutson signed this contract early last season on the heels of a Calder-winning season. Like Demidov, it already looks light, given that he was one of the top offensive players from the back end league-wide. With some of the contracts expected to be going to other top offensive producers, Hutson costing around half of that is great value. He’s another player where doubling this price tag could be realistic on his next contract.
Matheson has logged heavy minutes since joining Montreal but it’s expected that will change before long thanks to Dobson and Hutson. This contract seems to factor that in as it’s second-pairing money. He’ll be 37 when this deal expires so there’s a bit of risk but if he can hold up as a 20-minute player, he could land another short-term pact in this price range. When healthy, Guhle is a capable second-pairing piece but he has battled injuries in all four NHL seasons. If that continues, that will hinder his market for his next contract but if he can establish himself as a healthy second-pairing player, a multi-million-dollar jump is doable.
Outlook
Montreal’s cap situation is quite strong over the next few years with a lot of below-market long-term contracts. That will allow them to try to add some veterans over the next couple of summers or, if some of their incoming prospects live up to expectations, they can afford to sign them long-term as well. They may be in tough down the road to keep this group together as the team-friendly pacts expire but for now, their books are in very good shape.
Photo courtesy of James Guillory-Imagn Images.
