Projecting Mason McTavish’s First Season With the St. Louis Blues – The Hockey Writers – St Louis Blues
Mason McTavish enters his first season with the St. Louis Blues as one of the roster’s more intriguing forwards. Still only 24, McTavish will look to bounce back from a rough final season with the Anaheim Ducks. He has shown flashes of being a legitimate top-six scorer in his five-year career. Now in St. Louis, what can be expected of the 23-year-old?
The Baseline
Based on his career to this point, McTavish has established a fairly clear baseline. In 304 NHL games, he has 77 goals and 104 assists for 181 points. His 82-game average works out to 21 goals, 28 assists, and 49 points. That alone is respectable production, but his 2024-25 season suggests there is more to his offensive game.
McTavish’s 2024-25 Career Season
In 2024-25, McTavish scored 22 goals and recorded 52 points in 76 games. He scored six power-play goals for an Anaheim team that finished last in the NHL in power-play percentage and also ranked near the bottom of the league in goals per game (GF/G).
McTavish still produced despite the team’s offensive struggles, which showed his natural talent. That raised expectations for 2025-26, when he struggled and recorded only 41 points. His career took a step back, but his role with the Blues gives him a chance to right the ship.
McTavish’s Projected Linemates
One of the most important factors will be the quality of the players around him. McTavish is projected to play alongside Connor McMichael and Pavel Buchnevich, giving the Blues an interesting second-line combination that can produce in different ways.
McMichael brings speed, skill, and offensive creativity. He can attack defenders off the rush and create space for his linemates, which could benefit McTavish, who is most effective when he can get into scoring areas rather than carrying the entire burden of creating opportunities himself.
Buchnevich, despite coming off a disappointing season, does give the line an experienced two-way winger who can facilitate offense and make intelligent plays with the puck. He has shown the ability to hold possession and find teammates in scoring areas could particularly benefit McTavish.
McMichael and Buchnevich’s capabilities could help McTavish return to the 20-goal mark. He has a career shooting percentage of 12.2% and has exceeded that in the past, showing he doesn’t need many shots to score. If the right linemates surround him, he could be in good shape to score.
Will You Be His Neighbour?
After his struggles last season, I would prefer not to see Buchnevich on the second line until he can show he can still play at that level. I would much rather see Jake Neighbours take his spot.
A McMichael-McTavish-Neighbours line would have considerably more youth and physicality. Neighbours has built his game around attacking the interior of the ice, battling around the net and creating offense in high-traffic areas. Pairing him with McTavish could make the Blues difficult to handle off the faceoffs and in front of the net.
Ice Time
McTavish’s minutes dropped noticeably last season, to 15:19 from 16:53 in 2024-25. Considering he did still score 17 goals despite that reduced ice time, an increased role in St. Louis could naturally boost his production.
If McTavish receives around 17 minutes per game, regular top-six usage, and meaningful power-play time, getting back into the 50-point range should be a reasonable expectation.
Power Play
McTavish has scored 23 power-play goals during his career, including seven during his rookie season and six in 2024-25 and 2025-26. He has already shown he can score with the man advantage, and a bigger offensive role could push him toward another five-to-seven power-play goal season. The Blues’ power play struggled last season so the team would benefit from his production.
Physicality
McTavish’s physical game should also fit comfortably with the Blues. He recorded a career-high 95 hits last season and is willing to play through contact, battle for loose pucks, and contribute when he is not scoring.
General manager Alexander Steen seems to have prioritized adding physicality to the roster. While the standout addition is Ross Johnston, and he will certainly take on the main role, McTavish’s physical play should not be overlooked. For a team that sometimes lacks the ability to score a gritty goal, his physicality should be a welcome addition in the offensive zone.
On the Dot
His faceoff numbers are another area worth watching. McTavish won 51.7% of his draws in 2023-24 and 50.7% the following season. However, he did drop to 48.6% in 2025-26. If he can return to the 50% range, it would only increase his value as a center capable of handling difficult situations.
Reasonable Projections
McTavish has never scored more than 22 goals or recorded more than 52 points in a season, so projecting star-level production, like I have with others, would be aggressive. At the same time, his age, pedigree, and previous production suggest his offensive ceiling has not necessarily been reached.
A reasonable projection would put McTavish around 22-25 goals and 30-35 assists for 55-60 points. That would be a new career high while remaining realistic based on what he has already accomplished.
There is also upside. If McTavish’s line — whether he is playing with Buchnevich or Neighbours — clicks, 25 goals is attainable. Furthermore, if he can help the Blues’ power play improve, that will increase his goal totals while also earning him more ice time in key moments.
The Blues’ True Need
McTavish was the front office’s big addition of the summer. However, they don’t expect him to come to St. Louis and be “the guy.” They already have him in Robert Thomas.
The Blues do not necessarily need McTavish to become an elite scorer immediately. What they need is for him to establish himself as a reliable top-six center who can produce consistently, contribute on special teams, and complement the skill around him.
His career so far suggests he can do just that. It is just a matter of seeing if he can take advantage of his fresh start.
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