Pittsburgh Penguins’ Biggest Offensive Question Is Finishing, Not Chance Creation – The Hockey Writers – Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins do not need to completely redesign their offense.

They already proved they can create dangerous opportunities. Pittsburgh led the NHL with 740 high-danger shots on goal last season and finished third in scoring at 3.54 goals per game. The Penguins have also ranked no lower than sixth in high-danger shots during the NHL EDGE tracking era.

Those numbers suggest the offensive structure created enough opportunities to support a productive team. NHL.com’s Penguins roster evaluation identified chance generation as one of Pittsburgh’s clearest strengths entering the 2026-27 season.

The concern is what happens after those chances are created.

Anthony Mantha led Pittsburgh with 33 goals before signing with the New Jersey Devils. His departure removes the team’s most productive finisher from a lineup that has added several scoring options without finding one obvious replacement.

President of hockey operations and general manager Kyle Dubas has assembled a group that could replace Mantha collectively. Rickard Rakell, Egor Chinakhov, Andrei Kuzmenko, Nicholas Robertson, and Pittsburgh’s younger forwards all have enough scoring ability to contribute.

The Penguins’ biggest offensive question is whether enough of those players can finish the opportunities the team already knows how to create.

Penguins Already Generate Enough Dangerous Looks

The league-leading high-danger shot total changes how Pittsburgh’s offensive problem should be discussed.

This is not a team that spent last season trapped around the perimeter or struggling to reach the areas around the crease. The Penguins generated 740 shots on goal from high-danger locations, more than any other club.

That does not mean the offense was perfect.

Pittsburgh lost in the first round of the playoffs, and its power play dropped from 24.1% during the regular season to 15.8% during the first-round series. The Penguins also experienced stretches when the lineup became overly dependent on its most-established players.

The underlying numbers still provide an encouraging foundation.

Head coach Dan Muse does not have to create an entirely new system to make Pittsburgh dangerous. The Penguins need to preserve the puck movement, offensive-zone pressure and inside positioning that generated those opportunities.

The harder task is determining which players should receive the most valuable chances.

Rickard Rakell is the clearest example. He produced 90 high-danger shots on goal despite appearing in only 60 games. That works out to 1.5 high-danger shots per appearance and placed him in the 97th percentile among players at his position.

A healthy Rakell should remain one of Pittsburgh’s primary finishers because he has already shown he can reach the right areas consistently. His value is not limited to playing beside Sidney Crosby. Rakell gives the Penguins a shooter capable of converting chances from different lineup positions.

The problem is that Rakell cannot be the only reliable answer.

Mantha’s 33 Goals Leave a Real Hole

Mantha’s season was the ideal result from a short-term scoring bet.

He returned from ACL surgery, appeared in 81 games and established career highs with 33 goals, 31 assists and 64 points. His seven power-play goals ranked third on the Penguins, while his total goal production led the team.

The Devils eventually signed him to a two-year, $9.5 million contract carrying a $4.75 million average annual value. New Jersey’s official Mantha contract announcement confirmed the move after Pittsburgh allowed him to remain on the market.

The Penguins were justified in avoiding an aggressive commitment to a 31-year-old winger coming off a career season. That does not make his production easier to replace.

Mantha gave Pittsburgh size, net-front finishing and enough skill to play with offensive linemates. He did not need to dominate possession to affect games. The Penguins could create the opportunity, and Mantha frequently completed the play.

That is the specific element Pittsburgh must replace.

Losing 33 goals would be difficult for any team, but it creates additional pressure when the replacement options are based more on projection than certainty. The Penguins added players with scoring histories, but none scored more than 21 goals last season.

That makes a one-for-one replacement unlikely.

The more realistic solution is a committee. Rakell needs to remain healthy. Chinakhov has to sustain his Pittsburgh production. Kuzmenko must rediscover part of his previous scoring form. Robertson needs to turn a larger opportunity into a career year. One or two younger forwards must also provide secondary offense.

None of those expectations is unreasonable individually. The risk comes from needing several of them to happen at the same time.

Rakell and Chinakhov Must Lead the Committee

Rakell and Chinakhov should enter the season as Pittsburgh’s two most important non-Mantha finishers Rakell has the high-danger shot profile, while Chinakhov has recent production and one of the NHL’s hardest shots.

After arriving from the Columbus Blue Jackets, Chinakhov recorded 18 goals and 36 points in 43 games with the Penguins. He finished the full season with career highs in games, goals, assists and points.

That was more than a brief scoring burst.

Chinakhov produced for nearly half a season, earned a top-six role and became one of Pittsburgh’s most dangerous shooters. The Penguins responded by signing him to a three-year, $18.75 million contract carrying a $6.25 million annual value.

Pittsburgh’s official Chinakhov contract announcement confirmed the organization now views him as more than an inexpensive reclamation project. He is being paid to provide consistent offense.

The Penguins do not necessarily need Chinakhov to score 33 goals. They need him to prove his 18-goal Pittsburgh stretch was sustainable.

A season in the mid-to-high 20s would absorb a significant portion of Mantha’s lost production. It would also validate one of Dubas’ most important forward acquisitions.

The previous young-player projections entering 2026-27 placed Chinakhov at 27 goals and 58 points. That projection would pull him below the pace he established after the trade while still giving Pittsburgh the type of production it needs.

Rakell and Chinakhov provide different forms of finishing. Rakell does more of his damage around dangerous areas and has established chemistry with Pittsburgh’s veteran playmakers. Chinakhov can threaten goaltenders with his release and create scoring chances from farther away.

If both remain healthy and productive, Pittsburgh can replace a significant portion of Mantha’s scoring without asking another player to duplicate his season.

If either misses extended time or declines, the pressure shifts quickly toward less proven options.

Kuzmenko and Robertson Are Volatility Bets

Kuzmenko is the most obvious attempt to find another version of Mantha’s breakthrough.

The Penguins signed Kuzmenko to a one-year, $5 million contract after he recorded 13 goals and 25 points in 52 games with the Los Angeles Kings. Eight of those goals came on the power play.

He also owns a 39-goal NHL season from his rookie year with the Vancouver Canucks. That history explains the appeal.

Kuzmenko has already demonstrated that he can finish at an elite level when placed in the right role. His skill around the net should fit an offense that regularly creates high-danger opportunities. He can also contribute from different power-play locations, giving Muse another option after Mantha’s departure.

The concern is how far Kuzmenko has moved from that 39-goal season.

His production has declined, he has changed teams several times, and he underwent surgery in February to repair a torn meniscus. Pittsburgh is betting that health, opportunity and offensive surroundings can help him recover part of his previous form.

The Penguins’ official Kuzmenko signing release emphasized his scoring history and ability to operate around the net. Even reaching the low 20s would make the contract useful and absorb a meaningful part of Mantha’s lost offense.

Robertson is a different version of the same gamble. Pittsburgh acquired Robertson from the Toronto Maple Leafs before signing him to a two-year contract carrying a $3.25 million annual value. He established career highs with 16 goals, 16 assists and 32 points in 78 games last season.

The official Robertson contract announcement confirmed Pittsburgh is giving the 24-year-old more than a one-season audition.

Robertson’s shot has always been the easiest part of his game to project. His problem in Toronto was turning that ability into a consistent role. Pittsburgh can give him a cleaner opportunity, but the forward depth chart still includes several players competing for the same offensive minutes.

The Penguins need to determine quickly whether Robertson is a legitimate top-nine scorer or another useful winger without a defined place.

That question was central to the previous examination of Robertson’s role deadline in Pittsburgh. The contract creates security, but it does not guarantee the deployment required for a true scoring breakout.

Kuzmenko and Robertson combined for 29 goals last season. If they can push that total closer to 40, Pittsburgh’s committee begins to look convincing.

If they remain near last season’s production, the lineup becomes much more dependent on Rakell and Chinakhov.

Younger Forwards Can Supply the Margin

The Penguins should not expect their prospects and younger forwards to replace Mantha by themselves. They can still provide the margin that makes the committee work.

Ben Kindel scored 17 goals and recorded 35 points in 77 games as an 18-year-old rookie. Pittsburgh’s season-ending review of Kindel showed how quickly he progressed from a surprising roster candidate into a regular NHL center.

His first season demonstrated that he can already create offense at this level. His second will test whether he can become a more consistent finisher rather than simply maintaining his role.

A jump from 17 goals into the low 20s would give Pittsburgh another internal scoring gain. It would also reduce the need to rely entirely on veteran additions.

Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen present less certainty. Both need clear NHL opportunities before Pittsburgh can reasonably count their production. McGroarty still has to establish himself as a regular, while Koivunen’s crowded path remains one of the larger questions entering camp.

The Penguins’ five breakout candidates matter because the roster was built with internal growth in mind. Pittsburgh did not spend the offseason pursuing only proven 25- or 30-goal scorers. It created competition and left room for younger players to force their way into larger roles.

That approach is defensible, but it carries risk.

Young players do not develop on schedule simply because the team needs production. Kindel could improve without becoming a 20-goal scorer. McGroarty could play well while spending part of the season in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. Koivunen could remain blocked by the number of established wingers.

The Penguins should treat young-player scoring as upside rather than a guaranteed part of the Mantha replacement plan.

If the younger group adds 10 or 15 more goals than expected collectively, the offense can remain near the top of the league. If the development curve is slower, Dubas may have to search for another scorer during the season.

Penguins Cannot Depend on Every Bet Working

The scoring-by-committee plan is legitimate because Pittsburgh has enough candidates.

Rakell has an elite high-danger shot profile. Chinakhov scored at a top-six rate after the trade. Kuzmenko has a 39-goal season in his past. Robertson is entering his prime after setting career highs. Kindel has already scored 17 goals as a teenager.

The problem is not a lack of possible answers. It is the amount of uncertainty attached to each one.

Rakell played only 60 games. Chinakhov has not produced at last season’s Pittsburgh rate over a full NHL campaign. Kuzmenko is coming off surgery and three consecutive seasons below his rookie output. Robertson has never reached 20 goals. Kindel is still developing.

Pittsburgh does not need every player to hit his best-case outcome. It probably needs at least three or four of them to produce near the upper end of reasonable expectations. That is why Dubas should remain open to another proven scorer.

The Penguins should not force a trade or abandon the patient approach they have followed throughout the offseason. The organization has emphasized maintaining flexibility, avoiding regrettable long-term commitments, and leaving opportunities available for younger players.

Pittsburgh’s free-agency approach remained disciplined rather than forcing a major acquisition merely because cap space was available. That patience should continue, but the front office must remain alert.

The previous Jason Robertson miss forced pivot showed why Pittsburgh still needs to monitor the market. A true difference-maker would not only raise the offensive ceiling. He would make the current committee less fragile.

The Penguins may not find that player before camp. They do not need to make a move simply to say they replaced Mantha. They do need to recognize that a strong offense can still become vulnerable when its leading goal scorer leaves.

Penguins’ Offense Will Be Judged by Conversion

Pittsburgh already has the first part of the offensive equation. They generated more high-danger shots than any other NHL team. They finished third in goals per game. Their system produced opportunities from the right parts of the ice and gave several forwards chances to deliver career-best seasons.

Now the personnel around those opportunities have changed.

Mantha took 33 goals to New Jersey. Kuzmenko and Robertson arrived with scoring upside, but neither matched that total last season. Chinakhov has to sustain his breakout. Rakell must stay healthy. Kindel and the younger forwards need to provide growth without being asked to carry too much responsibility.

The scoring-by-committee plan can work. Rakell and Chinakhov can lead it. Kuzmenko and Robertson can stabilize it. Kindel, McGroarty, Koivunen, and others can provide the additional production that pushes the group over the top.

That outcome is possible because Pittsburgh should continue creating enough chances. The question is whether it has enough finishers to convert them.

The Penguins do not need to discover where the goals should come from. They need enough players capable of putting the puck there.