My Official Predictions For Round 1 Of The Canadiens-Lightning Series
While I’ve written my preview of each position for the Montreal Canadiens vs. the Tampa Bay Lightning series, I have yet to give my actual predictions on what I believe will happen in this series. In this piece I will make some predictions regarding players in the series before ultimately picking a series winner. Here are my 5 series predictions for the Habs vs. Lightning series.
Slafkovsky has made the high slot his power play office. That’s my expert hockey analysis. #GoHabsGo https://t.co/D1OxkK0yhO
— Ted Bird 🇮🇱 (@manofbird) March 21, 2026
Starting with a prediction that may not be surprising to hear, as I have written on why this player could be the Habs MVP during the series, I see Juraj Slafkovsky leading both teams in goals during the series with 5 goals in 7 games. Prior to this season, Slafkovsky has been seen mainly as a playmaker on the offensive side of the puck despite owning a cannon of a shot. Due to using his size and ability to handle pressure from the defenders in the slot, Slafkovsky played the majority of the season in the bumper on the power play, which led to him leading the team in power play goals with 15. The Slovakian forward scored half of his goals on the season during the man advantage, and that will play a key role in his success during the first round. I fully expect him to score 3 power play goals during the series, as the Lightning defensemen won’t be able to contain his big body in the slot. Once again, Slafkovsky is built for the playoffs, and this series will show that.
pic.twitter.com/zN2psuSUf1 Caufield with goal number 51ST. Historic 🔥
— Nosebleed Puck (@NosebleedPuck) April 12, 2026
To continue on the theme of the power play, the Canadiens will score on over 20% of their man advantages as they will make the league leaders in penalty minutes pay for their undisciplined play. Considering how they didn’t score once on seven attempts in their last meeting on April 9th, it is a little bold to think the Habs will score on 20%+ of their man advantages, but I believe they will find a way to solve the league’s 3rd best penalty kill in the regular season. of course they may need to make less seam passes than uaual but it is possible. As a result, it will play a factor in the Canadiens winning at least one game thanks to a late 3rd power play or one in overtime.
Most career 130+ point seasons by an NHL player:
13- Wayne Gretzky
6- Mario Lemieux
4- Phil Esposito
3- Marcel Dionne
3- Connor McDavid
2- Nikita Kucherov (Via his 1G-1A effort in tonight’s 4-3 @TBLightning OT win vs DET)
2- Bobby Orr
2- Guy Lafleur
2- Jari Kurri
2- Steve Yzerman pic.twitter.com/S8T1MCRvBX— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) April 14, 2026
The next prediction is that the Canadiens will lose at least one game by 3+ goals. While the previous predictions were positive for the Habs, I decided to throw in a negative prediction to show how this series won’t be an easy one for them. With the Lightning being led by superstar Nikita Kucherov, who has been a top 3 scorer in the regular season in each of the last 4 years, he is bound to have a night where he completely takes over the game for a 4-point night. This type of performance will end up leading to a blow for the Lightning, as it should otherwise be a low-scoring game with solid goaltending. A huge reason for Kucherov having a big 4-point night in the series will come down to the Habs missing Dobson. However, from that performance the Habs will be able to adjust and find a way to shut him down going forward.
For the 4th prediction, Jakub Dobes outperforms Andrei Vasilevskiy throughout the series despite the Lightning controlling most of the play at even strength throughout as the Habs netminder steals two games. Vasilevskiy has a combined .882 save percentage in his last 3 years during the postseason; those struggles will continue as he finishes the series with a sub. 900 save percentage for the 4th year in a row. Meanwhile, Dobes continues his recent success against the Lightning and finishes with a save percentage above .910 for the series.
Experience /Talent vs young talent . Habs will fight and claw and win in 7
— Kyle Gluska (@KGluska) April 18, 2026
For the final prediction, despite being the inexperienced team in this series, the Canadiens beat their opponents in 7 games as they show that the Lightning’s dynasty of the early 2020s is officially long gone. A huge reason for the Habs ultimately prevailing is that the Lightning have struggled mightily over the past three years at home during the playoffs, winning just once in their last 10 postseason matchups at the Benchmark International Arena. With that being said, the trend will continue as I predict the Habs will win 3 of 4 road games in the series but only come out victorious in one matchup at home. The reason for that will be because the Habs will have a chance to win the series for the first time in Game 6, but due to inexperience, they will crack under pressure at home. However, the Habs will bounce back in Game 7 with less pressure and get the job done by playing their style and drawing penalties by not getting caught up in the Lightning trying to get them to retaliate. Although, the Habs lack experience, they did have a 5-game series last year that seemingly helped them prepare all year for this year’s postseason and they will be hungry to show just underestimated they are as underdogs in this series.
What are your predictions for the Habs vs. Lightning first-round series?
