It’s an exciting time to be a Canadiens fan
Three seasons ago, the rebuilding Montreal Canadiens finished dead last in the Atlantic Division. Now it feels like they’re one move away from challenging the Carolina Hurricanes for the Eastern Conference throne.
Where do you start with the roster-building successes of this organization? It’s a long list.
The timing of the Canadiens’ rebuild in and of itself was flawless – the franchise was able to find, develop, and extend critical parts of their young (and super talented) core right before the league’s salary cap exploded, creating a heap of team-friendly contracts.
Noah Dobson, Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Ivan Demidov, and goaltender Jakub Dobes are all signed through at least the 2029-30 season, with an average cap hit of $7.9 million. This core, mind you, delivered a 106-point campaign just a season ago.
And it goes beyond the top of the lineup. The Canadiens have surely found their head coach – Martin St. Louis was extended on a four-year deal Monday. Winning teams with respected coaches can also have a magnetic effect around the league. They were able to nab veteran winger Chris Kreider – who is as automatic a 20-plus goal scorer as you can find – on a discount signing after the Anaheim Ducks bought him out.
And this is a team with plenty of cap room to upgrade. The contracts of Phillip Danault, Josh Anderson, Alex Carrier, Kirby Dach and Sam Montembeault all expire at the end of this season, creating $21.5 million in cap space to lean into for 2027-28 and beyond.
As for this season: I think the one move Montreal is still thinking through is an upgrade at the second centre position. A name like Detroit’s Dylan Larkin immediately intrigues, but his no-trade clause certainly complicates things. To that end, I think Montreal’s focus is likely around two other pivots on expiring deals: Columbus’ Kirill Marchenko, and Nashville’s Ryan O’Reilly
Both would look amazing in the lineup behind Suzuki, and for different reasons.
The 26-year-old Marchenko has established himself as a quality top-six offensive weapon with 141 points over the past two seasons. O’Reilly is the classic veteran rental (and a meaningful upgrade on the defensive side, I would note).
Compared to their forward peers, both grade exceptionally well. Consider their production over the past few seasons – we’ll use the all-encompassing Goals Above Replacement measure to grade them against their peers:
Given the track records, both are anticipated to be hot commodities on the trade market, and both bring interesting trade wrinkles with them.
The Blue Jackets would love to keep Marchenko in the fold long term and he’s a restricted free agent at the end of this deal, but there is a strong likelihood of his next deal being in the eight-figure per year territory and there are already reports Marchenko is looking elsewhere. To that end, Montreal may be able to entice both him and the Blue Jackets to work out a sign-and-trade type of deal.
O’Reilly, meanwhile, is in the twilight of his career and likely wants one more bid at the Stanley Cup. The 35-year-old simply is not going to get that opportunity in Nashville this season. The Predators depth chart looks like a team eyeballing the draft lottery, and the Predators could package O’Reilly to a contender and start leaning into a more aggressive rebuild posture in doing so.
If Montreal is less interested in a long-term financial commitment to a second-line centre a la Marchenko, O’Reilly becomes a perfect rental option, buying Montreal another season of developing internal options or scouring the rest of the market next summer.
At any rate, it’s an exciting time to be a Canadiens fan. I would keep an eye on GM Kent Hughes and company. My bet is they’re not done adding, and I think either of these additions could be a difference maker for Montreal in an ultra-competitive Atlantic Division.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference
