From mayhem to chaos to scouting for blockbusters — The Fourth Period

You know, what started off as simultaneously defend and challenge the John Chayka hiring piece has turned into a four-part deep dive into the Toronto Maple Leafs’ off-season.

So far, we’ve discussed the Chayka hiring and why David Carle should be the next Leafs’ Head Coach. Today, we play the lottery… the draft lottery, discussing who’s the better choice between Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg (have I changed my mind?), leading into an idea so crazy that it might actually be a win-win for the teams involved. Shall we?

Let’s Talk Draft

Thank goodness for YouTube.  

Gavin McKenna. Ivar Stenberg. Both Left Wings, both show great potential to be future NHL stars. They are who the public at large expects to go 1-2 in this June’s NHL Draft. If you’re Toronto, who do you choose?

Thanks to YouTube, I was able to put my old scouting hat on and dedicate time to watching both players. Multiple seasons, in fact, at least two of McKenna’s and I believe three of Stenberg’s. They are two very different players, let’s quickly break them down (and save you the 1000 or so words I have in the Notes section of my phone).

Gavin McKenna

• Hockey IQ: Elite.

• Speed: NHL average

• Vision and creativity: Elite. Will learn not to make so many cross-ice passes at the NHL level after getting burned a few times early in his rookie season

• Shot: NHL average power and accuracy (expect similar improvements as Connor Bedard has experienced his first three seasons). Several Draisaitl-esque crease-line goals.

• Hands: Elite

• Feet and Edgework: Elite (can break a defenseman’s ankle in skates the same way Allan Iverson did in his prime in running shoes). Keeps his feet moving, keeping plays alive

• ·       Wore an “A” in the WHL at age 16, which I hope is more a recognition of his leadership than his being the most skilled player on the ice.

• Lots of perimeter play (which is the devil in scouting circles). That said, more than willing to make a quick cut into the middle of the ice, drawing opposing players to him and creating openings in the process. Great at coming in off the half-wall or end boards with the puck. This will work for him in the NHL as a lot of playoff goals happen off a skill player doing exactly this, and finding the split-second opening in the coverage to make a pass or score on a goalie whose shoulder is too low.

• He cares. Perfect example was a play this past year in the NCAA against Ohio State. He takes a shot on goal, it’s stopped and sent into the right corner. McKenna fights for the puck with their D, loses that battle. Puck goes up the right boards, McKenna quickly gets up there and knocks the puck loose. He continues to track the puck, winning another puck battle three seconds after the last one, drives the puck back in and creates a goal.

• He cares Part 2: NCAA again, starting to leave the defensive zone as the opposing team has possession. Even as an LW, cuts off the middle of the ice, leading to him intercepting a chest-high outlet/saucer pass, knocking it down with his stick (hand-eye is tight), controlled the puck, quickly circled back into the opposing zone, bore down 1-on-1 on the D and used him as a screen, scoring a beautiful goal that the goalie could not see.

• Never cheated for opportunities in anything I watched.

In 2011, I went to Sarnia to watch prospective (and eventual) first-overall pick Nail Yakupov play in one of those Canada-Russia Super Series games during his draft year. Over 14 years later, I still distinctly remember the single time Yakupov stood out in the game. Rushing the puck up the left side of the ice, classic 3-on-2, lots of options. At center ice, he has the puck, he’s skating. At the blue line, he has the puck (zone entry alert!), he’s skating. His center is staring daggers through him, and what does Yakupov do? Takes a harmless shot on goal from 43 feet out. Nothing happening, in that shift or the game.

For me, that moment sums up the entire Nail Yakupov experience, and with the on-and-off-ice challenges that McKenna faced this year by going to college during his draft year, along with how much scouts hate his defensive play, the fact that he is not a center (premium position), and his yo-yo’ing up and down draft charts all season, going into the video session I had concerns. Now? None. His talent is sublime. His care factor is off the charts. And, because almost nothing has been made of this, let’s give McKenna credit for going to college as a 17-year-old to play against men in their early 20s.

McKenna could have easily stayed in the WHL, put up 160-170 points, had everyone screaming Generational Talent from their respective pulpits, gone first overall, and that be that. Instead, he challenged himself, which is what people who care do, what people who have long-term vision do. Not unlike when Matthews when to Europe to play pro hockey in his draft year. And of those of you screaming NIL money, $300,000-$700,000 worth of NIL money means nothing to someone who has the potential to earn $200,000,000 over the course of his career. So yes, I see McKenna being a regular 100+ point player in his prime and being his team’s Nikita Kucherov (though scoring apex-level Kucherov points is nothing a smart person projects).

Ivar Stenberg

I’d draft him for his first name alone. And considering my track record as a teenager reading The Hockey News’s top-60 draft-eligible players and knowing by their name who would and who wouldn’t succeed, I’ll stand by that assessment. For the sake of the exercise though…

• Hockey IQ: High. Always in the right place at the right time. Makes quick decisions, does not hold the puck a moment longer than he has to before putting it in an optimal spot to create a scoring chance.

• Defensively: Plays a 200-foot game, doesn’t cheat an inch

• Speed: NHL Average. A half-step faster than McKenna, minus the overall athleticism

• Shot: NHL Average snap shot, great release. Similar ability to McKenna to score down low toward the crease line (Draisaitl has inspired a generation!)

• Game control: High, again different style than McKenna. While McKenna slows the pace down (hence the Marner comps), Stenberg is the pace, forcing opposing teams to keep up. At the junior level when he was clearly the best player on the ice, he’d draw multiple defenders and be able to find the open player, setting up many goals this way.

• Clutch gene: High. Wants the puck in key moments. His 4-6-10 in seven World Junior Championship games this past winter is not as shiny as McKenna’s 14 points. What was shiny was the fact that as the games got more important, against tougher teams, the 17-year-old elevated his game, scoring goal after goal and helping lead Sweden to the gold medal. These goals were all pro-style goals as well.

• Power game: Junior Strong. At both the WJC and in the Swedish Elite League, playing as one of, if not the youngest person on the ice each time, he drove the net at will, fearlessly. Strong downhill game. It will be interesting to see if he can do that against physical, 6’3” and up defenseman in the NHL.

• Power game, Part 2: Strong net-front presence. Happy to live around the net. Plays strong, fights off defenders who try to lift his stick (scored a great goal this way in the SEL). Gets positioning on opposing D and can finish off scoring attempts, be it passes, deflections, or rebounds. He can take someone else’s miss and finish it off. He doesn’t do it the exact same way that Zach Hyman does, though the end result is the same. Again, can he do this at the NHL level at 5’11” and the 195 or so lbs. he’ll fill out into?

• He cares. It oozes off him every shift.

Two very different players. McKenna is the safer choice to me because I have less questions about how he’ll adapt his game to keep creating offense. For him, it’s going to be knowing when to stay on the perimeter vs when to cut in (he already does this, it’ll simply tilt in being in the middle of the ice more now), only making cross-ice passes when the opportunity is real, shooting enough to make defenses come to him so he can pass like he wants to, and making a commitment to defense.

Stenberg, who in junior dominated in the same way that McKenna did (and the PPG shows it), will have to figure out how to find offensive success at the NHL level at his size and without an elite motor. He is a winner though, and his give-a-damn meter is high, so it’s easy to believe in his 80-point, Jake Guentzel-level potential. If he grows an inch or two and/or spends some real time with a power skating coach, then his ceiling grows. At the same time, we’ve seen plenty of top-4 picks end up 2nd, 3rd, and even 4th liners (looking at the 2016-2019 drafts alone, the teams picking 2nd and 3rd in the 2019 draft would like a redo, Jesperi Kotkaniemi (3rd overall) in 2018, Nolan Patrick (2nd – migraine issue caused his retirement) in 2017, and Patrik Laine (2nd) & Jesse Puljujarvi (4th) in 2016), so there is a real risk in drafting a play you’re unsure of, in this case a smallish (sub-six-feet-tall) player who doesn’t have elite speed and plays a power game as an undersized player in a league (Swedish Elite League) not exactly known for its hulking, brutish defensemen.

The Mystery Box

(Shoutout to Locked on Leafs as they are one of two media outlets – and the one I can remember – where I heard mention some version of this, which caused me to almost yell out in agony while doing cardio as I’d been thinking about this from damn-near the moment Toronto got that #12 ball. I am competitive, after all.)

A couple of friends and I made our way to the 2003 NHL Entry Draft in Toronto, where we saw the last time the first-overall draft pick was traded. Most of the time, it makes sense to keep the pick. This year is unique though. A team that only a year ago had their Cup window open has the pick. They are realistically only 2-3 real players (and a revamped bottom-six forward/bottom paid D group) away from being a real contender, assuming the right coach is selected. Toronto also has both holes and cap issues. Is it possible to solve multiple issues with one move?

Potentially, as the value of a first-overall pick is very high, and in the right city, the idea of McKenna joining the team would make that value even hire and is one that would elate that team’s fanbase far more than him joining the Leafs would Toronto’s.

I wonder what Henrik and Daniel are doing right now…

Why the Blockbuster Makes Sense 

Where to even begin? There are so many unique angles for this Toronto team that a Team with the first-overall pick normally does not have.  

• Regardless of my personal scouting report, this is not a draft with a clear No.1 pick and a hockey media creating a false frenzy by trying to say that the presumptive #2 pick could actually go first. This is a draft that legitimately has four-to-five players that could go first overall, depending on which NHL team you talk to. Now, you might read that and think that’s crazy, because all you’ve been hearing about for the last few years is Gavin McKenna, However, there are teams that think Stenberg, the fast-rising (and only top center in the draft) Caleb Malhotra, or RHDs Chase Reid and even Keaton Verhoeff are top-of-the-draft material. It’s much easier to envision trading the pick when your scouts don’t see a guaranteed superstar and there are multiple first pick options, especially when you can logically project how the top few picks will play out.

• San Jose has the 2nd overall pick, and unless they trade down (which is why you make your move first, always throw the first punch), the logical assumption is that with all of their top young forwards and dearth of top young defensemen, they will choose someone like Chase Reid, who, beyond being a 6’2” RHD, projects to be a power play QB, and is much-improved defensively, showing himself to potentially be a complete #1 defenseman. Even if you love Stenberg, there isn’t enough of a gap between the two players, and if Reid’s floor is 2nd pair D vs Stenberg’s being 3rd line LW, it’s easy to take the D.

• Caleb Malhotra has become the late, fast-rising player in the draft. There’s always one, and this year’s happens to be someone who started the season as his team’s third line center, yet was a first line mainstay all season, finished 2nd on his team in points (4th in PPG), and then elevated his game in the playoffs, where he led the Brantford Bulldogs to the OHL’s Eastern Conference finals by scoring 13-13-26 in 15 games. Whenever they elevate to the area of a 2 PPG pace in the playoffs, that tells me they are gamers, they are here to win. When I hear people describe Malhotra, all I think of is Jonathan Toews, a future first ballot Hall of Famer and his three Stanley Cup rings as the Captain of the Chicago Blackhawks. You can very easily talk yourself into Malhotra if you project his offensive side to keep growing (his playmaking skill is very clear).

• Toronto has holes. Second line center is the most important as it’s beyond time to get John Tavares onto the wing.