Canadiens Draw Tampa Bay, Tough Decisions Await Ahead of Game 1

After months of speculation, the Montreal Canadiens’ first-round opponent is officially set. In a season that will see the Canadiens finish as a top-four team in the Eastern Conference, they’ll reap no reward for it, instead drawing one of the most dominant teams of the last decade: the Tampa Bay Lightning.

From an entertainment perspective, you couldn’t script a better series. From a matchup standpoint, there’s no doubt the Canadiens will be pushed to their absolute limit.

If last Thursday’s matchup between the two teams at the Bell Centre was any indication of what’s to come, this series will be a bloodbath, and that may be putting it lightly. Add the words Stanley Cup Playoffs in front of a game between these two, and that level of intensity will rise exponentially.

Now that the opponent is known, Martin St. Louis can begin finalizing his Game 1 lineup. Players have rotated in and out of the lineup over the last month, and while not everyone has agreed with every decision, this is the time for St. Louis to get it right.

Tough Decisions Await the Forward Group

Between Zachary Bolduc, Alexandre Texier, Kirby Dach, Joe Veleno, and Brendan Gallagher, a handful of difficult decisions await. It’s likely only three of the five will draw into the lineup if St. Louis sticks to a similar rotation.

Gallagher is the most puzzling case of the group. While he may not be as effective as he once was, he remains the definition of a playoff player. He gets under opponents’ skin, creates chaos in front of the net, and gives maximum effort, even if he only plays 8–10 minutes a night. He has sat out the last handful of games, and while some of that may be tied to declining play, it also wouldn’t be the worst strategy if Montreal plans to reinsert him for the playoffs fully rested and ready to go.

Bolduc should be an automatic start, at least for the opening two games of the series. If things go south, St. Louis has the flexibility to adjust, but Bolduc has a profile that feels built for playoff hockey. He brings a rare mix of physicality and skill, something the Canadiens lack outside of Josh Anderson among their forwards. With Tampa Bay likely using the Anthony Cirelli line to focus on Montreal’s top line, having Bolduc on the third line to provide depth scoring could be a major asset.

As for Texier, Dach, and Veleno, it may come down to a coin flip. Each brings something valuable. Texier looks like a natural fit on the second line, Dach offers size with flashes of skill, and Veleno has been highly effective defensively, strong on faceoffs, and brings some grit to his game. St. Louis could justify any of the three, but in playoff-style hockey, Veleno feels like the most deserving of the first opportunity based on his recent play.

Dobson Leaves a Glaring Hole, Who Fills It?

Losing Noah Dobson this close to the playoffs is about as crushing a blow as the Canadiens could have suffered. The league leader in blocked shots, a right-handed defenceman who logs 20-plus minutes a night, he has quietly been one of the most underappreciated players on the roster.

He is virtually impossible to replace, but Montreal will have to find a way. Without him, the Canadiens are down to two right-shot defencemen: Alexandre Carrier and David Reinbacher. Carrier appears likely to return in time for the playoffs, while Reinbacher figures to factor into the lineup with a somewhat similar profile to Dobson.

If the Canadiens go in that direction, a decision will need to be made between Arber Xhekaj and Jayden Struble for the final spot. The two have battled all season, so it’s only fitting that it carries into the playoffs. Both have played strong hockey down the stretch and bring a physical edge, so it may simply come down to who St. Louis trusts more.

Struble has spent more time alongside Lane Hutson this season, which likely gives him the early edge. However, Xhekaj’s presence was noticeable and effective in the last matchup between these two teams.

St. Louis has a good problem on his hands, but narrowing this roster down to the 18 skaters who will suit up for Game 1 won’t be easy.