8 NHLers Due to Regress in 2026-27 – The Hockey Writers – Season Previews

Earlier this week, we looked at nine NHLers who are due to bounce back after tough 2025-26 seasons. Today, let’s look at eight NHLers coming off career seasons who could regress in 2026-27.

Dan Vladar

Goalies are difficult enough to predict from year to year. You never know what you’re going to get, but Dan Vladar is coming off a career season with the Philadelphia Flyers. He recorded a .906 save percentage while saving 13.8 goals above expected. That helped him earn a five-year, $5.5 million-per-year extension with the Flyers.

Vladar was a fine enough backup with the Calgary Flames, but his best season wasn’t anything special. He finished the 2024-25 campaign with an .898 SV% and saved 0.9 goals above expected in 30 games. He was a slightly above-average netminder that season, but he never came close to the numbers he posted with the Flyers in 2025-26.

The thing with goalies is they do break out later than skaters. The Flyers also play a low-event, conservative brand of hockey that puts their goalies in a position to succeed. Perhaps this is what he is moving forward, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if his numbers revert closer to his career averages (.898 SV%).

Pavel Zacha

Pavel Zacha has become a solid player during his time with the Boston Bruins. He’s averaged 22 goals and 58 points per 82 games since the Bruins acquired him from the New Jersey Devils, but he took his game to another level last season.

Zacha finished with a career-high 30 goals and 65 points in 78 games, but regression is almost certainly coming. He shot 22.9 percent, well above his career average of 13.1 percent. He also outperformed his individual expected goals by nearly eight goals, another indicator that regression may be coming.

But even though Zacha probably won’t record 30 goals again, he’s been a consistent 20-goal scorer with the Bruins. I’d expect him to be closer to a 20-goal, 50-point player this coming season. That’s still a top-six forward, but 30 goals on nearly 23 percent shooting probably isn’t all that likely again.

Parker Kelly

One of the reasons the Colorado Avalanche soared to the Presidents’ Trophy last season is that they got contributions from depth players such as Parker Kelly. He finished with a career-high 21 goals and 35 points, but like Zacha, some of his success was percentage-driven.

Kelly shot 20.2 percent, well above his career average of 11.6 percent. His shot volume was also about the same as his previous career output, and his 21 goals came on 12.61 individual expected goals. He’s averaged 11 goals per 82 games for his career, so I’d expect his goal-scoring to be closer to that level this coming season.

Tyler Bertuzzi

Maybe it’s because the Chicago Blackhawks weren’t particularly good last season, but Tyler Bertuzzi had one of the quieter 30-goal campaigns in the NHL. He recorded 32 goals and 58 points in 79 games, the first time he tallied 30 goals since the 2021-22 season with the Detroit Red Wings.

Bertuzzi shot 19.6 percent last season, but he’s shown plus finishing ability before. He’s a 15.2 percent shooter for his career, so regression may not hit him as hard as it might for Zacha or Kelly.

Still, he’s been closer to a 20- to 22-goal scorer for his career. Connor Bedard will miss the start of the season after suffering an injury during offseason training, which could impact Bertuzzi’s production since they spent some time together as linemates (267 minutes) last season.

Cody Glass

The Devils were among the more disappointing teams in 2025-26, but Cody Glass was a bright spot. He finished with 19 goals and 26 points in 70 games, a 23-goal pace over 84 games. But like the other forwards in this article, his goal-scoring was partially percentage-driven.

Glass shot 18.1 percent, above his career average of 10.9 percent. He does generate high-danger chances at a decent clip, but I would still expect his conversion rate to dip a bit next season. He totaled 19 goals on 13.46 individual expected goals, so he could be closer to an 11- to 13-goal scorer this season.

Anthony Mantha

One of Glass’ newest teammates with the Devils, Anthony Mantha could also be due for regression, but he’s an interesting case. He’s coming off a career season with the Pittsburgh Penguins, totaling 33 goals and 64 points in 81 games, but he’s become one of the NHL’s more underrated finishers.

Mantha shot 21.7 percent last season, above his career average of 13.9 percent. He also significantly outperformed his individual expected goals of 19.57. Everything points toward regression, but what’s interesting is that he’s outperformed his individual expected goals in each of the last three seasons. He’s also shot over 20 percent across that stretch.

Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt will provide Mantha with plenty of scoring opportunities, but can he outperform his expected numbers and reach 30+ goals again? I wouldn’t count on it. He’ll probably be closer to a 20- to 25-goal scorer, but he has outperformed his expected numbers for a while. It wouldn’t be a surprise if that continues next season.

Scott Wedgewood

Scott Wedgewood was a feel-good story last season. He finished with a .921 SV% and a 31-6-6 record while posting terrific underlying numbers. He saved 28.73 goals above expected at all strengths and recorded a five-on-five SV% of .921. He was one of the best goaltenders in the NHL and finished fifth in Vezina voting.

The Avalanche should once again be one of the league’s best teams, but can Wedgewood repeat his 2025-26 campaign? He has a career SV% of .909, but he’s never come close to saving 28.73 goals above expected before. It was easily the best season of his career, and he accomplished it at 33.

Like Vladar, I don’t see Wedgewood turning into a pumpkin. He has more of a track record of success than Vladar as well, but he might not finish top five in Vezina voting again. He could be closer to an above-average netminder who finishes with a SV% between .905 and .910.

Mark Scheifele

Mark Scheifele is coming off a quiet (at least to me) 103-point season with the Winnipeg Jets, setting a career-high. While he has produced 80+ point and point-per-game seasons before, he had never come close to 100.

There are a couple of indicators suggesting he could regress. One) Scheifele shot 23.15 percent at five-on-five, a career-high, and tallied 25 goals on 16.14 individual expected goals. He has shown high-end finishing ability throughout his career, but he’s generally been around a 15-17 percent shooter at five-on-five.

He will probably regress a bit, but he’s still an excellent player capable of 80 to 85 points a season. I wouldn’t expect that much of a drop-off.

Can these players defy the odds and avoid regressing? Time will tell, but most of the signs point to them coming back down to Earth next season.

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