Who is Outperforming last season and Who is Underwhelming?

I spent a great deal of time over the last week or so looking at players who are outperforming expectations and players who are very much underwhelming so far this year. I’ve done this for about 300 players, and I’ll get to more of them as time goes on, but I thought it would be interesting to look specifically at the top 31 elite players from last season — and where they are right now.

I defined “elite players” as those who were around one point per game last year — some above, some just below, but all in that range. There are some really interesting takeaways from this, but here’s the list first…

• 16 of these 31 players are signed for five or more years.

• Crosby and Ovechkin are not under contract for next season.

• McDavid and Kucherov have only two years left after this one.

Olympic Hopefuls Making a Push

Robertson, Scheifele, Boldy, Caufield, Suzuki… and Wyatt Johnston.

A Note for Maple Leafs Fans

This board is fascinating. Despite the team’s struggles, Nylander is the most improved and productive player on the entire list, with John Tavares not far behind at number four. Meanwhile, Mitch Marner sits at number 30.

Over the years, there’s been endless debate about whether the Leafs should trade Nylander or Marner. In my experience, it was never Marner that fans wanted to move. It’s still early, of course, but the table above paints a pretty striking picture right now.

Looking Ahead to the Trade Deadline

The next list — probably going up this weekend — will focus on players who scored between 0.5 and 0.9 points per game in 24–25 and how they’re performing this season. That one might be even more relevant for the trade deadline, since it could highlight players who are actually available, as opposed to the superstars.

Still, this superstar list was just too interesting not to post.