The 11 Most-Likely Deadline Buyers Ranked and Analyzed.

This is a fun one today…

As I continue my prep for this year’s coming Rumor Chart, I’m going to keep showing you all some of the behind-the-scenes stuff I’ve learned over the last twenty years of doing this. Today, I’m listing the Top 11 Most Likely Buyers…as of now (I will update again in early January)

Why 11? Well, over the years I’ve learned that teams with a rating over 75 are far more likely to be active as buyers. Tomorrow, I’ll get into the sellers…

Ek’s Trade Deadline Buyer Likelihood Ranking System

My system is made up of four categories. Here’s how each is weighted:

• Current Playoff Position (50%) – Are they in, or close to, a playoff spot?
• Competitive Window (20%) – Are they a Cup contender, or just trying to sneak in?
• Year-over-Year Performance (20%) – Trending up or trending down?
• Cap Space Flexibility (10%) – Can they actually make a move?

Now… the Cap Space Question…

I know how you all thinking, and I can already hear it:

“How can cap space be only 10%? A team without space can’t make a deal…”

But here’s the funny thing about logic: in order to make a logical decision, you need to have every fact. And when it comes to NHL teams… we absolutely do not have every fact.

Cap space is something we know 100%. No question.  But what we don’t know is often far more important than what we do know when teams start moving players.

• How a player fits in the room

• Whether a team wants to move out a certain player and knows someone else wants him

• Third-party brokers willing to help (for a price)

• How badly an owner wants a specific player

• And countless other internal factors that are always evolving

Over the years, I’ve learned not to give cap space the same weight as the other elements….many of which tie directly into desperation, which by itself can kick logic’s ass.

So here’s where we are as of early December…

The 11 Teams Most Likely to Buy….As of now..

1. Dallas Stars – Score: 98

• Playoff Position (50pts): Currently in strong playoff position ★★★★★ (50/50)
• Competitive Window (20pts): Cup contender, made Conference Finals last year ★★★★★ (20/20)
• YoY Performance (20pts): Maintaining elite level ★★★★ (16/20)
• Projected Cap Space  (10pts): -$1.77M over cap but have a creative GM★★ (4/10)
• Analysis: Elite team that was one round from the Finals. All-in window with aging core pieces. Will find ways around cap issues.

2. Colorado Avalanche – Score: 96

• Playoff Position (50pts): Strong playoff team ★★★★★ (48/50)
• Competitive Window (20pts): 2022 Cup winners, MacKinnon/Makar prime ★★★★★ (20/20)
• YoY Performance (20pts): Consistent contender ★★★★ (17/20)
• Projected Cap Space  (10pts): Only $1.57M available ★★★ (6/10)
• Analysis: Championship pedigree. This IS their window with elite talent in prime years. Ryan O’Reilly?

3. Edmonton Oilers – Score: 95

• Playoff Position (50pts): Strong position despite cap ★★★★★ (47/50)
• Competitive Window (20pts): JUST lost Cup Finals Twice, McDavid’s prime ★★★★★ (20/20)
• YoY Performance (20pts): Two Cup Finals in s Row… ★★★★★ (20/20)
• Projected Cap Space  (10pts): -$2.04M over but will find a way ★★ (3/10)
• Analysis: McDavid window is NOW. Cap be damned, they’re adding. Tristin Jarry?

4. Toronto Maple Leafs – Score: 92

• Playoff Position (50pts): Nit Currently In playoff position ★★★★ (42/50)
• Competitive Window (20pts): Matthews/uylander prime, desperate to break curse ★★★★★ (19/20)
• YoY Performance (20pts): Perennial playoff team ★★★ (14/20)
• Projected Cap Space (10pts): Only $225K – very tight ★★ (2/10)
• Analysis: Desperate to end curse. Will be creative with cap. Kadri?

5. Minnesota Wild – Score: 87

• Playoff Position (50pts): Solid playoff team ★★★★ (43/50)
• Competitive Window (20pts): Kaprizov in prime, competitive window ★★★★ (16/20)
• YoY Performance (20pts): Consistent playoff team ★★★★ (16/20)
• Projected Cap Space (10pts): $3.69M – good flexibility ★★★★★ (9/10)
• Analysis: Best cap situation among contenders. Will add depth pieces.

6. Los Angeles Kings – Score: 86

• Playoff Position (50pts): Strong playoff position ★★★★ (44/50)
• Competitive Window (20pts): Competitive but not elite ★★★ (14/20)
• Projected Cap Space (10pts): $2.8M available ★★★★ (8/10)
• Analysis: Solid team with flexibility. Will look to add that missing piece.

7. Washington Capitals – Score: 85

• Playoff Position (50pts):3rd in metro (unexpected) ★★★★★ (48/50)
• Competitive Window (20pts): Ovechkin final season? ★★★★ (17/20)
• Projected Cap Space  (10pts): $2.75M available ★★★★ (7/10)
• Analysis: Surprise contenders.  Great Coacking. Ovechkin Final?. Will add to support the run.

8. Tampa Bay Lightning – Score: 83

• Playoff Position (50pts): Leading Atlantic ★★★★ (41/50)
• Competitive Window (20pts): Championship pedigree, window closing ★★★★ (17/20)
• YoY Performance (20pts): First round exit, looking to bounce back ★★★ (14/20)
• Projected Cap Space (10pts): -$950K over ★★ (3/10)
• Analysis: Kucherov core knows what it takes. Will push chips in while window is open.

9. Winnipeg Jets – Score: 82

• Playoff Position (50pts): Out of playoffs…injuries ★★★★ (43/50)
• Competitive Window (20pts): Hellebuyck window ★★★ (15/20)
• YoY Performance (20pts): Consistent ★★★★ (15/20)
• Projected Cap Space  (10pts): $2.99M ★★★★ (8/10)
• Analysis: Perennial contender, will look for depth additions.

10. New Jersey Devils – Score: 78

• Playoff Position (50pts): second in Metro with 33 points ★★★★★ (47/50)
• Competitive Window (20pts): Young core, future bright but now? ★★★ (12/20)
• YoY Performance (20pts): staying competitive despite missing Jack Hughes ★★★★★ (18/20)
• Projected Cap Space (10pts): -$4.4M over ★ (2/10)
• Analysis: Young team over-performing. Might make smaller adds to capitalize.

11. Carolina Hurricanes – Score: 77

• Playoff Position (50pts) Top in the Metro. ★★★★ (42/50)
• Competitive Window (20pts): Perennial contender ★★★★ (15/20)
• YoY Performance (20pts): Need to get through the Conference in Playoffs★★★ (14/20)
• Projected Cap Space (10pts): $8.64M – MOST mong contenders! ★★★★★ (10/10)
• Analysis: Best cap space among real contenders, but goaltending concerns.

Tomorrow….Most Likely Sellers…