Patrik Laine to the Maple Leafs, Why It Won’t Work

The idea of the Toronto Maple Leafs landing Patrik Laine before the March 6, 2026, deadline was floated around this morning by thoughtful Maple Leafs writer Jon Steitzer. It’s worth unpacking whether it could actually happen and make sense.

The Context for Laine Being Available from the Canadiens

Patrik Laine is in the final year of that big four-year, $34.8 million contract ($8.7M cap hit) and becomes a UFA this summer. He’s only played five games this season after core muscle surgery, though he’s apparently healthy again after the Olympics. Montreal would love to move him as a salary cap dump, and some chatter has popped up linking Toronto as a possible landing spot.

The idea floating around is that the Leafs could take him with 50% salary retention, give up something modest like Calle Jarnkrok or a mid-round pick, give him a short look, and either extend him or flip him later.

Here’s the problem: it just doesn’t pencil out.

The New CBA Playoff Cap Rules Impact the Possibility of a Trade

Under the new CBA playoff cap rules, teams must be compliant with their 20-man roster for every postseason game. Even with 50% retention, Toronto would still be dragging roughly $4.35M in dead money into the playoffs. They’re already tight to the cap, so they’d have to move salary out first just to create room — and then they’d still be carrying that retained hit.

Montreal, from everything that’s been reported, isn’t desperate enough to attach a prospect or pick to get rid of him. They want someone to take the cap hit with little or no return on investment. That’s not the kind of deal the Maple Leafs can afford right now.

Laine also comes with real risk—his injury history, slow start even when healthy, and a high-variance game that can disappear in tight situations. The Maple Leafs already have enough of that in the lineup.

Now, compare that to someone like Andrew Mangiapane (another player Steitzer mentioned). The Edmonton Oilers are apparently shopping him ($3.6M cap hit through 2026-27). He’s struggled this year, but he’s a known quantity. He could become a solid depth winger with some upside at a more manageable number.

Toronto could take him with retention and give up something small. This might actually work without blowing up their books or their future. That’s the kind of realistic reclamation move that fits where the Leafs are right now.

The Bottom Line on Laine?

Bottom line: Laine to Toronto feels like classic deadline-season wishful thinking. The cap math doesn’t work, the risk is high, and Montreal’s not giving anything away to make it happen. If Brad Treliving is looking for a similar type of player, Mangiapane (or someone in that range) is far more realistic.

Related: Insider: Oilers Setting Up Trade With Andrew Mangiapane Deal