NHL EDGE stats: Carlson trade boosts Ducks’ Pacific Division title chances
Anaheim, which is in a neck-and-neck race with the Vegas Golden Knights for the Pacific Division title, have already matched its win total from last season (35) with 20 games left in the regular season. The Ducks have the third-longest playoff drought (seven seasons; most-recent appearance: 2017-18) in the NHL behind the Buffalo Sabres (14) and Detroit Red Wings (nine), and all three of those teams were in position to qualify for the postseason at the three-quarter mark of the season (March 6).
Here are three advanced stats storylines surrounding Carlson that could help the Ducks win the Pacific Division and/or make a deep playoff run.
1. Shots by location
Carlson covers all three major shot locations at a high level; he ranked third among defensemen in high-danger shots on goal (15) this season prior to the trade, showing he is still a driver of zone entries and scoring chances in different situations and regardless of linemates.
He also ranked highly at his position in perimeter shot location categories prior to the trade; he was in the 90th percentile in midrange goals (four), 87th percentile in midrange shots on goal (23), 86th percentile in long-range goals (three) and 85th percentile in long-range shots on goal (48).
Carlson is a three-time 70-point defenseman who had his best season in 2019-20 (75 points in 69 games) and also has had six seasons of at least 20 power-play points (career-high 33 in 2018-19). But this season, Washington’s power play struggled (16.4 percent; fifth worst in NHL) prior to the trade; Carlson had nine power-play assists playing mostly on the second unit but had no power-play goals.
2. Skating ability
Even as a veteran, Carlson brought plenty of speed and playmaking ability to the Capitals and now could help the Ducks reach another offensive gear. He ranked in the 86th percentile among defensemen in max skating speed (22.52 mph; 86th percentile) and 88th percentile at the position in power-play skating distance (19.29 miles).
Carlson ranks fifth among active defensemen in primary assists (311) and joins a defense corps with fellow veteran Jacob Trouba and up-and-coming players like Jackson LaCombe, Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov. One of the biggest tasks for Carlsson will be to help the Ducks improve their defensive play; despite being in a division title race, they are allowing 3.50 goals per game, the second most behind the Vancouver Canucks (3.71). Prior to the trade, Carlson was one of nine NHL players with at least 45 points (46) and 80 blocks (84) this season.
Per NHL EDGE IQ, the Ducks already had the most shot attempts off the rush per game (19.1) in the League prior to the Carlson trade. NHL EDGE IQ defines shots off the rush as inferenced shots (excluding attempts taken greater than 60 feet, beyond the goal line or against empty net) that occur within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line.
