The Long, Strange Road That Led Gavin McKenna to the Maple Leafs – The Hockey Writers – Toronto Maple Leafs

Gavin McKenna‘s journey to becoming the first overall pick in the 2026 draft has been a bit of a rollercoaster. And when you go back and look at how much his draft stock moved over the past year, it’s kind of remarkable that we’re now sitting here talking about him as the player who heard his name called first.

Rewind to the end of the 2024-25 junior season, and McKenna looked almost untouchable. At just 17 years old, playing his third season with the Medicine Hat Tigers, he put up an absurd 129 points in just 56 regular-season games. Then he went into the playoffs and somehow got even better, producing 38 points in 16 games while helping the Tigers win the WHL championship.

At that point, there really wasn’t much of a conversation about who should go No. 1. McKenna wasn’t simply the presumptive top pick. He felt like a lock. He was the kind of player everyone was already talking about in terms of which NHL team would eventually get him, rather than whether somebody else might pass on him.

McKenna Went From Draft Lock to Draft Question

But then he did something that changed the whole conversation. McKenna left junior hockey and headed south to play college hockey at Penn State. That’s a pretty unusual route for somebody who had just finished a season like that. Instead of spending another year dominating the WHL, he decided to challenge himself against bigger, older and more physically mature players.

And it didn’t go perfectly right away. There were suddenly questions. His defensive habits got more attention. People questioned his willingness to play a physical game. Some of the things that had been easy to overlook when he was putting up video-game numbers in junior hockey became more noticeable against NCAA competition.

And while all of that was happening, some other really good players started making their own cases. Ivar Stenberg was generating plenty of interest. Chase Reid was emerging as a potential top defenseman. Caleb Malhotra was getting people’s attention, too. Suddenly, the 2026 draft wasn’t looking quite as simple as it had a few months earlier.

For a while, it genuinely felt like the No. 1 pick might be up for grabs. Then McKenna did what really good prospects tend to do when people start questioning them. He answered the questions.

He put up 14 points in seven games at the World Junior Championship, then followed that with a strong second half at Penn State. Slowly but surely, the conversation started swinging back in his direction.

Then Toronto Jumped into the Draft Picture

The Toronto Maple Leafs won the draft lottery, and suddenly this whole story got a lot more interesting. Toronto was coming off its worst season in a decade. It’s a franchise that has spent years searching for the next big answer, and now it has landed the first pick in a draft featuring a player who, not that long ago, looked almost destined to be selected first.

Even McKenna seemed to appreciate the weirdness of it all. He acknowledged that it was almost funny that a team expecting to fight for the playoffs next season ended up winning the lottery, and said he’d be fortunate to land in Toronto.

Then came questions about what the Maple Leafs should do. Some analysts suggested that they take a safer route and select a steady, two-way defenseman who could eventually become part of the team’s foundation. Others suggested that the franchise should swing for the fences and take McKenna, a player who has already shown he can completely change the temperature of a game.

There were certainly arguments on both sides. Toronto has plenty of holes to fill, and defence is one of them.

But the Maple Leafs Are Also the Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs are a franchise that has been waiting a long time for something to go its way. McKenna has already been through the hype, the questions, the doubts and the comeback. His path to No. 1 hasn’t been exactly straight.

Maybe that’s part of what makes the story so interesting. Because after all those twists and turns, Toronto decided Gavin McKenna was the right piece for their puzzle. Now the big question is whether McKenna can become the player who helps make that something completely different happen.