Trending or Ending: Is Marchenko to the Canadiens Still Happening? – The Hockey Writers – Montreal Canadiens

Few rumors have generated as much back-and-forth this summer as the idea of Kirill Marchenko landing in Montreal. With talk that a Marchenko trade feels all but imminent, some reports have the Canadiens as the front-runner. Others have his camp shutting the whole thing down. So which is it — is this trade actually building momentum, or is it running out of steam?

Here’s where I think things really stand.

The Case for “Trending”: Marchenko Likely Looking to Move On

The interest in the forward is real, and it isn’t new. At the same time, it sort of feels like Marchenko is ready to go elsewhere. Neither the team nor the player has publicly said the relationship is dire, but there’s a sense that a split might be inevitable.

It also seems clear that Montreal has placed Marchenko on their trade radar. We know Kent Hughes is looking for opportunities to improve his team with the right mix of talent and youth, and reports that the Canadiens took a “hard run” at him around the time of the 2026 draft probably aren’t exaggerated. This isn’t a rumor that popped up out of nowhere.

The fit also makes sense on paper. Marchenko is coming off back-to-back strong seasons, following up a 74-point campaign with 67 points in 76 games, while playing on a team-friendly $3.85 million cap hit. He’s exactly the kind of proven top-six scorer a rebuilding-turned-competitive Montreal team has been hunting for.

Cap space isn’t an obstacle either. Montreal has roughly $9.78 million in projected space with a full roster already in place, meaning they could absorb Marchenko’s current deal without needing to unload money elsewhere first.

The Case for “Ending”: Does Marchenko Follow The Trend in Montreal?

As nice a fit as Marchenko is on paper, this is hardly a slam dunk move for Montreal. The Canadiens are loaded with a roster that is on board with taking less to help the team win. It’s unclear if Marchenko would follow suit. He’s an RFA at the end of next season with arbitration rights. He then becomes a UFA. The way contracts are trending, he’s going to get paid. However, there’s an internal ceiling in Montreal that the Canadiens won’t be comfortable blowing past for a player they just acquired.

At the same time, Marchenko’s own camp has been aggressively pushing back on the specific reports tying him to Montreal. His agent, Dan Milstein, has publicly dismissed multiple rumors in the past week alone, at one point mocking a report as more active than his actual “sources.” He’s not even trying to be subtle about it.