Discussing Demidov’s Extension – HabsWorld.net
HabsWorld.net —
On the opening day of free agency, the Habs signed the biggest contract but stayed on the sidelines. That’s because the contract was an extension for Ivan Demidov, an eight-year, $73.2 million pact. Our writers offer up their thoughts on the deal.
Brian Davis: This is yet another sign of how together this team is and how focused everyone is on building a cup winner. Whilst the contract is, of course, based upon potential, many teams would have used a bridge deal and then done a crazy $12 million plus deal after two years. This way the core is secured for at least seven or eight years.
The key thing that this also affects, though, is their trading ability, not the assets, but more the salary of those they bring in. What happens if a $10 million-plus player is available in a trade? Will they change the approach to get the player?
A nice problem they will have is in seven to eight years trying to extend everyone. Hopefully, though, they will be taking a Cup Team discount by then.
Allan Katz: I have read and listened to every single analysis of the Demidov contract and the repetitive quality of the words was both positive and like being in an echo chamber. Except for one inane, crass, stunningly revealing, insight out of Toronto. Four Torontonian media hockey insiders were critiquing the contract and one doofus cried out in horror,
“Each of these Hab signees from the HuGo administration should fire their agents immediately for getting them lousy contracts!” No one disagreed.
Now one can argue that this shrill, media-harpy has a point. On a case-by-case basis, each athlete signed for enough money to take care of their great-grandchildren, but they still could have gotten more. In and of itself, he was correct. But here was his failing:
This Toronto-centric goofball is living in a city where the Leaf team chemistry was destroyed by overpaying their top talent, leaving not enough money to fill out their defence and bottom six to challenge for the cup. The Oilers at least went to a number of Stanley Cup Finals and Conference Finals and won enough series to be considered and then proved themselves to be legit contenders. The Leafs painted themselves into a corner that crippled them. There was not an iota of acknowledgement that what the Habs were doing was constructing a culture of give-and-take that is even now paying off before it’s time.
If this Habs squad wins even one Cup, they will be able to live their old ages out knowing they climbed to the top of the mountain, in a big part, because of the choices each one of them made.
Habs team and players and owner: very impressive.
Leafs team and management: Good luck.
Austin Matthews’ 1990s porn moustache: A fashion tragedy!
Brian La Rose: There is always a risk associated with these types of early signings but Demidov’s performance last season provides optimism that he will be able to live up to the contract fairly quickly. Even if he levelled out as a 60-point player moving forward, his cap hit will probably be the going rate for a UFA in that range midway through the contract with the way the Upper Limit is set to increase. That mitigates things somewhat.
In the face of the Leo Carlsson offer sheet, Demidov’s contract looks that much better by comparison. (Demidov would not have been eligible for an offer sheet had they waited until next summer to do a deal, by the way.) And they’ve managed to keep the increases incremental despite the cap projections which isn’t a small thing. They’re giving themselves a window to add another core piece down the road (Noah Dobson was a big core add last year) while still being able to keep the nucleus in place. If management can do that, the Canadiens should be in great shape.
It’s especially important that this got done before the mid-September deadline loomed. At that point, the maximum length of a contract drops from eight to seven while the year-to-year structure gets a little stricter; this deal wouldn’t be valid ten weeks from now. It certainly helps when ownership is willing to go this route and the Habs have gotten good at making the case for why this structure works with Demidov being the latest example.
Kevin Leveille: I think it’s an outstanding piece of business by the Canadiens. Demidov is coming off a 62-point rookie season in which he often looked like the offensive driver on Montreal’s second line, and the extension doesn’t even begin until after this upcoming season, giving him another year to keep growing before the new money kicks in. At an average annual value of $9.15 million, the deal already looks team-friendly for a player with legitimate star potential. Even in a conservative scenario where he develops into a very good second-line forward, the contract should still provide tremendous value in a rising cap environment, while the upside is that Montreal has locked in a future franchise winger below what elite offensive players may command later in the decade. Along with the contracts for Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, and Hutson, this feels like another foundational piece that could age extremely well. It also helps position Montreal to be aggressive when opportunities arise to add impact talent around its young core. I know many fans view this offseason as a frustrating one because the Canadiens have yet to find a long-term running mate for Demidov on the second line, but this extension looks like another important step toward building a team capable of competing near the top of the standings for years to come.
Peter Longo: Once you get past the ridiculous amount of money that these professional athletes are making, this contract isn’t that bad.
Otherwise, similar to my thoughts when the Hutson contract was announced, I like that Demidov has already produced at a high level so there’s a lot less risk that he won’t live up to the contract. Certainly less risk than Caufield’s or Slafkovsky’s contracts, as both of them had struggled at times and hadn’t yet performed at a high level, yet were still offered big contracts.
The only hesitation is that eventually Hughes’ luck will run out. So far, these big contracts offered to rookies are working out. But all it takes is for one of these contracts to be a dud and it will overshadow all the other contracts. Personally, I’d rather wait until the players are proven performers and then sign long-term deals – even if that means paying them more. The league is full of examples of bad contracts that handicap teams’ ability to compete. So far, Hughes has avoided that but it only takes one. Be careful, Mr. Hughes.
Paul MacLeod: There’s not a whole lot to say about Demidov’s extension. Hughes has now locked up his young core to high-value, long-term deals. Now, back to the task of acquiring the reinforcements needed for that core to be in a position to win it all.
Norm Szcyrek: I am ecstatic that Demidov was signed to an extension on the first day of free agency. The young Russian forward proved he can play in the NHL right away, leading all rookies in scoring. There is still room for him to grow his game as he learns more about his opponents and I expect his scoring will increase over time. The Canadiens’ deep pockets allowed them to structure the deal in a way that Ivan is going to receive most of the money in signing bonuses, which is certainly to his advantage. The average annual value of the contract will make him paid just less than Noah Dobson. This deal gives the Habs another core player signed long term at a reasonable amount, which should leave enough money for other future signings or trades when the opportunity comes along for Montreal’s management.
Oren Weizman: Demidov’s contract is not just good value, it has a chance to become tremendous value. For context, a $5M cap hit today is roughly the price of a short-term bet on a productive winger like Andrei Kuzmenko in Pittsburgh. But if the NHL salary cap continues to rise by around 5% per year, Demidov’s cap hit could represent only about 6% of a cap approaching $143 million by year four. For a 25-year-old Demidov, that could be an enormous advantage for Montreal.
