Review of Playoff Player Usage for Montreal, Carolina, Colorado, and Vegas – DobberHockey
This week we are wrapping up our playoff review and finally are on to the last four teams, each of the conference finalists. That means we will be focusing on the Montreal Canadiens, Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, and Las Vegas Golden Knights.
As a reminder, for this article we are going to look at these four teams and focus on things that have changed. It is such a small sample size that we are not going to read too much into point paces etc. but instead look at how players were utilized in these win-or-go-home series and if that change resulted in anything different on the score sheet or in the underlying numbers. Doing so might give us a bit of insight into how teams are viewing certain players and who might be primed for a different role next season compared to this one. This is also the playoffs so to some extent we would assume that a team’s top players see a bit of an increase while some depth players might fall off a bit.
But on to the process. We will be looking at deployment and specifically percent of time on the power-play, and total time on ice. We will be using percent when possible as overtime games can add significant time to a player’s overall count without changing that player’s real deployment opportunity. In order to get this data, we will be running a Big Board report for the playoffs and comparing that to a second custom Big Board report for the last two months of the regular season. That comparison will tell us which players have gained or lost time between these two samples. Essentially, we are looking at four data points from two different time periods. We have basic scoring data (points per game, and shots per game), then basic time on ice data (percent of the power-play, and total time on ice). In addition we will also be looking a bit at the contract status for players for a clue as to what changes might be in the works for over the off season.
Montreal played 19 games over the course of their playoff journey, taking both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Buffalo Sabres to seven games before losing to Carolina. Seven of those games went to overtime so we definitely need to take the time on ice numbers with a grain of salt but the biggest winner has to be Ivan Demidov. As a rookie it was unusual for him not to be relegated a bit as we have seen with most other teams and young players. Alex Newhook actually has the biggest increase in average time on ice, increasing by nearly three minutes, but Demidov saw more power-play time as well where Newhook’s dropped. Newhook also saw his shot rates increase and scored some big goals, so his star is also on the rise, but given Demidov’s pedigree and age he still takes the cake for me. On the flip side Oliver Kapanen, who seemed to be on the rise during portions of the regular season fell off hard in the playoffs. He only played in seven games with 10:04 of ice time being his high-water mark. He and depth forwards Zachary Bolduc and Kirby Dach lost the most and with both Bolduc and Dach needing contracts this off season as RFA’s the timing could not be worse.
Colorado had quite an interesting playoff. They had only lost one game against the Los Angeles Kings and Minnesota Wild combined, and then couldn’t manage a win in their series against Las Vegas. That means a total of 13 games, with only two going to overtime. The biggest winner in Colorado is definitely Gabriel Landeskog. There are only actually four players who increased their power-play share, and most are not significant enough to matter. Landeskog increased his share by 23 percent, getting over 80 percent of Colorado’s time on the top unit. He also increased his overall time on ice by almost two minutes, skating with Nathan MacKinnon. This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise; the playoffs are exactly when Colorado wants Landeskog to feast and he responded by increasing both his shot and point rates. Given his injury history Colorado is going to be much more cautious during the regular season. The stock-down pick is definitely Brock Nelson. It looks like he ended up on a second line and second power play, but he lost three and a half minutes of ice time and was down to 17 percent of the team’s power-play – a loss of almost 60 percent. Clearly losing the top power-play gig was a big problem and he dropped significantly in both shot and point production rates.
After their somewhat lackluster regular season, a run to the Stanley Cup finals was impressive for Vegas, particularly by dispatching Colorado in four games. Overall, they played 22 games with five overtime games, and two going to double overtime. The numbers don’t show anything really surprising. We have an increased role for the top D, with Shea Theodore, Noah Hanifin, and Rasmus Andersson, all gaining overall time, and small percentages on the power play, though Vegas finished the playoffs with the five forward top unit. Tomas Hertl is the most relevant loser in this situation dropping almost four minutes a night to 13 minutes on average. His time was all over the place, he is under contract for several more seasons, and Vegas already has a new coach so while it is a question mark for sure, I am not completely counting Hertl out.
Carolina ran roughshod over most of their playoff competition, sweeping both the Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers before losing one game to Montreal in the Eastern Conference Final. This leaves them with 19 games, but with seven overtimes, and two double overtimes. Alexander Nikishin lost out on the most opportunity including most of his power-play time, and almost three minutes of overall time on ice. Normally we might just look at this as a new player in the league seeing his role somewhat reduced, but there are now trade rumors associated with him as well. He is one certainly worth watching in the coming days. Nikolaj Ehlers looks to be the biggest winner, increasing to almost 70 percent of the team’s power play, and almost 19 minutes of time on ice. It did not translate to more scoring, so you have to look for Logan Stankoven and Taylor Hall for that. Neither saw an actual change in their deployment but clearly answered the call when it was time. Outside of maybe Nikishin and Mike Reilly (UFA), Carolina can just roll back the same team next year so look for more of the same.
That is all for this week.
Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.
