Canadiens Issues Go Beyond Bad Goaltending
The Montreal Canadiens are a little ahead of schedule when it comes to their long-term rebuild plans. All things considered, the mere fact they’re in a playoff race just a few years removed from wholesale changes is rather impressive.
Some teams take up to a decade, or more, to right the ship, whereas the Canadiens actually managed to squeak into the playoffs last season.
And while it was an encouraging development, it also raised the bar considerably. Canadiens fans not only expect the team to qualify for the playoffs this year, they’re also hungry for post-season success.
But that’s putting the cart ahead of the horse.
As it stands, the Habs have to ensure they’ll get an invitation to the springtime dance in the first place, and to do so, they’ll have to focus on their greatest area of weakness.
Quality Scoring Chances
The biggest issue facing the Canadiens since head coach Martin St-Louis was put in place is their poor share of high-danger scoring chances.
The team is ranked 16th at 5v5 in shots against, to the tune of 57.6 per 60 minutes of ice time. It’s far from ideal, but at the very least, they’re no longer in the basement of the NHL, as they have been in previous seasons.
However, they’re ranked 24th in the league when it comes to allowing high-danger chances, with 12.3 per 60. Not every team below them is at risk of missing the playoffs, but the vast majority of them would be described as organizations that are heading towards, or are engaged in a rebuild.
The issue is compounded by Montreal’s inability to generate a bevy of high-danger chances to counterbalance their defensive woes. The Habs rank 29th in the league when it comes to producing quality scoring chances, with just 10.5 per 60.
This means the Canadiens have the fifth-worst share of high-end scoring chances in the league, with just 46.13%. The only teams with worse results are the Vancouver Canucks (46.12%), the New York Islanders (44.6%), the Seattle Kraken (42.36%), and the Chicago Blackhawks (41.97%).
For the record, the top three clubs in high-danger chances are the Carolina Hurricanes (55.43%), the Vegas Golden Knights (55.02%), and the Colorado Avalanche (54.96%), teams that are all considered a threat to capture the Stanley Cup this season.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Of course, better goaltending could mask some of these issues, but in the long run, if the Canadiens hope to one day become a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, they’ll need to do a much better job controlling the best scoring chances.
To put a fine point on the importance of this particular issue, the Golden Knights have received worse goaltending than Montreal this year, and the Hurricanes are essentially tied with the Habs when it comes to the team-wide save percentage, hovering near the 89.9% range.
It’s very easy to blame the netminders, but the truth is that Habs make life very difficult on their goaltenders due to their weak share of high-danger scoring chances.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.
