Ottawa Senators versus Montreal Canadiens

At the risk of sounding dramatic, the Ottawa Senators’ season is effectively over tonight if they lose in regulation. And while said loss would not actually mathematically eliminate the Sens, moneypuck (to site just one of many sources) gives this game a 20% swing in playoff odds for Ottawa with a regulation decision. You don’t have to take my word for it or theirs, but the implications for the game (and the games remaining against Buffalo and Detroit) bear just as much or more weight than all the hay that the Sens just made out west. Gotta win those division games, baby.

Montreal currently leads the season series 2-1 but both of their wins came in overtime whereas Ottawa won in regulation. The most recent game (in Ottawa) on January 17th resulted in an overtime loss for the Sens who have yet to defeat Montreal at the CTC this season. And now while I need to acknowledge that Montreal has the better record and therefore a solid chance of making the postseason, the Senators have a lot of statistics in their favour (even though I know statistics amount to doodley squat in sports a lot of the time).

Game Notes:

• Among other holes in Montreal’s proverbial armour, they do not have a starting netminder with a save percentage above 90 this season so at least Ottawa has leveled the field there.
• Both teams come into this game relatively hot, each with one loss in their last ten games. Montreal plays the back half of a back-to-back tonight having hosted Toronto last night (stupid Montreal beat stupid Toronto in regulation) so yeah, gotta win the marathon, not the sprint.
• Both teams have similar five-on-five offence with the slight edge to Ottawa (2.73 xGF/60) over Montreal (2.64) but I must acknowledge that Montreal has the best shooting luck in the league (I refuse to call it skill).
• Ottawa still leads the league in terms of five-on-five defence (2.25 xGA/60) while Montreal sits somewhere closer to the bottom of the league (2.83) so volume will matter for Ottawa.
• Montreal (8.79 xGF/60) has the slight edge on the powerplay and again just absurd shooting luck but Ottawa (8.24) can generate chances too.
• Ottawa has also ascended the league rankings in penalty kill defence (6.87 xGA/60)–goaltending be damned! while Montreal ranks among the worst in the league (10.05) in terms if shorthanded defence.
• All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick

Senators injuries: Jake Sanderson

Canadiens injuries: Patrik Laine

Where to watch/listen: RDS, SN, TSN1200 @ 7:30PM EST

Lines from last game: