Teach teams how to Dougie — The Fourth Period

The offensive rating is no surprise based on the counting stats, which are… different than what I referenced above (don’t you worry, we’re getting there). The defensive rating parallels what the Puckpedia analytics demonstrate, and overall, there’s your net worth.

In spite of the -7 (which is now a -3, see, we’re closer), you see specifics around his expected goals for/against. In short, he’s been solid defensively, easily 2nd pair-level (for additional context around offensively gifted 2nd pair D, Morgan Rielly has a -8.9 D-Rating, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson of Sweden’s Olympic Team has a -5.1 D-Rating, which has improved over a point in the last month, but I digress).

So why is Hamilton a minus player? New Jersey averages the 15th most goals against per team, right around league average, however starting goalie Jacob Markstrom, who’s played in 26 of NJ’s 49 games is not having a good season. A 3.27 GAA, .882 SV%, and 59th of all NHL goalies who have played at least 10 games this year in Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes. When the goalie who’s in net the majority of the time is letting in soft goals, it makes the players in front of him look worse than they are.

Now then, earlier I referenced 5-5-10, -7 in 40 games. At that point in the season, Hamilton was benched for a game and the trade discussion, that is the genesis of this article, began. While Luke Hughes had two assists, New Jersey lost that game to a then-downtrodden Winnipeg Jets team 4-3. Back into the lineup came Hamilton, who had two assists himself in a 5-2 win over the dynamite Minnesota Wild, then assists in each of his next three games. New Jersey is 3-1 with two OT wins since Hamilton came back into the lineup, and Hamilton’s current boxcars are 5-10-15, -3 in 44 games. He’s clearly making a point.

Now, if he was playing to this offensive standard or even his regular one (higher shooting %), his offensive rating would be in the 4-to-5 range (as opposed to -0.2). Realistically, in spite of the secondary opportunities and poor goalie support behind him, Hamilton is still a true 7 or 8 net rating player, which would make him a #2-3 D-man in the NHL today.

So, as we’re trying to make the playoffs New Jersey, let’s trade that guy. Especially now that we’re not bringing in another offensive defenseman who makes close to the same amount as Hamilton. Makes sense, right?

So, the question is, to whom? I think it’s whom.

The Options

Breezing through the conference standings and cross-referencing with team that would like a top-pair, RHD with size and length who can provide steady offense and defense…well…yeah everyone should want a player like that. Specifically:

Detroit: Has multiple 3rd pairing RHD on the roster (and one – remember Justin Holl? – buried in the minors), along with Axel Sandin-Pellikka, who is not ready for a top-4 playoff role).

Montreal: Would be an upgrade on all of their 2nd pair RHD options.

Carolina: Beyond being an upgrade on like, everyone there other than Jaccob Slavin, who in the world is Domenick Fensore?!

NYI: As much as Tony DeAngelo’s comeback has been a nice story, he still can’t play D.

Pittsbu – Yeah, this isn’t happening.

Boston: Almost had Rasmus Andersson, would they bring Dougie back to where it all began?

Toronto: Well, duh, except, how do you clear the salary needed to make this happen?

Flor – Stop typing! Don’t give them any ideas, don’t give them any ideas.

Philadelphia: Has some offensively-minded defensemen, however in the same offensively-stifling system that is confusing pundits into thinking that Matvei Michkov is regressing, Hamilton would not be able to play his game and maximize his effectiveness.

Dallas: Ooh, that’s spicy. And terrifying.

Vegas: Just kidding…or am I?

Edmonton: We’ll get there, and when we do hear me out.

San Jose: THEY’RE BUYERS EVERYONE! ~ Checks notes ~ He rejected a deal there in the summer. Sure, but like, they’re 3rd in the Pacific right now, in a playoff spot, yet -17 in total goal differential. We’ll come back to this as well.

Anaheim: Read: San Jose (-12 in goal differential)

Los Angeles: Desperately, if only he was left-handed. Brandt Clarke is The Truth.

Seattle: He’s not a system fit there; however, he would be an upgrade on Adam Larsson and Cale Fleury, at least in the regular season and you need to win now to play in the spring

Nashville: Don’t you dare, Barry Trotz. Don’t you dare.

Well, that’s only six Eastern Conference and seven Western Conference teams (as I am kidding about Vegas, they need middle-six forward depth more).

So, let’s really quickly pair this down.

New Jersey’s Most Likely Trade Partners

East: Detroit, Carolina, Toronto (Boston’s hockey management is only a few years removed from having signed the kid who was known to have abused a disabled person in their youth without talking to NHL hockey ops, no way they bring back someone who they wouldn’t pay and subsequently traded a decade ago who got heat in the past for enjoying art. Grunt.)

West: Dallas, Edmonton, San Jose/Anaheim

Still seven teams. Let’s discuss each, because you’re as hardcore about this as I am.

Detroit: Has no true top-four, no playoff-caliber 2nd pair RHD. This would allow A S-P to drop to the 3rd pair or sit if he’s too young for playoff hockey. It gives Norris-caliber Moritz Seider some insulation, ensures Ben Chariot is either on the 3rd pair or in the press box (trade him already), and equally ensures Travis Hamonic is in the press box or waived.

Carolina: Play him with Slavin or K’Andre Miller (having a great year), likely K’Andre on the 2nd pair. Huge upgrade over a motley crew of Walker/Chatfield/Legault/Nystrom.

Toronto: Their right side is such a mess that O E-L plays there regularly (part of why his defensive impacts this year have been weak), Philippe Myers, he of the 6th worst average Game Score in the NHL plays regularly, Matt Benning played his first NHL game in years recently, etc. Chris Tanev’s season may be over due to groin surgery, and there truly is no replacing him. At least by bringing in Hamilton, you’d be able to provide better balance and proper usage of your depth chart, along with adding a powerplay weapon.

Dallas: Forever looking for a 2nd pair RHD, Hamilton’s an easy fit there. Provides secondary scoring, more complete 5-man units, will invariably make a key mistake in the Conference Finals…it’s all right there for the taking.

Edmonton: Other than Connor McDavid, Hamilton for the LHD model, Darnell Nurse: Who says no? (Edmonton should do this deal all day. Nurse has played much of this year like the last few playoff runs have taken it out of him, is basically break-even which you need better than on a 2nd pair if you’re going to win the Stanley Cup, and it gives better left-hand/right-hand balance to the D core. Walman steps up to play with Hamilton, giving Dougie mobility and stability alongside him).

Anaheim/San Jose: Ostensibly the same team for the sake of this exercise. Young, upstart, unexpected, not-ready-for-prime-time, yet here we are teams. A huge, obvious improvement on anyone SJ is throwing out on their right side (depth chart correction for John Klingberg and the always-rumoured, never-traded Mario Ferraro), and in Anaheim, he pushes Radko Gudas to the 3rd pair where he needs to be and takes the porous Drew Helleson out of the lineup.

Salary Cap

Cap-wise, heading over to CapWages because it’s been a long life and their site is easier to read. In the East, Detroit has over $14M in cap space, so dealing for Hamilton’s $9M cap hit is a non-issue. Similar for Carolina and their $7.1M in cap space. Putting injured goalie Pyotr Kochetkov on season-ending LTIR (SELTIR) would give the Hurricanes enough space by itself. Toronto is actually over the cap by $27,462.

• Place Chris Tanev on SELTIR, save $4.5M in cap space

• Trade Simon Benoit, save $1.35M

• Waive Matt Benning, save $1.15M (for those checking my work, remember that his salary exceeds the $1.15M max you can save by demoting a player this year)

• Demote Jacob Quillan, save $875,000

• Mercifully waive Philippe Myers, save $850K

• Demote Dennis Hildeby, save $841,667

• Total savings: $9.56M, and that’s before accounting for any players (Benoit? Myers? Stolarz? Robertson?) who could end up being traded in a package to New Jersey. In short, if Toronto SELTIR’s Chris Tanev, they can easily find $9.5M in cap space this deadline be it for Hamilton or someone else.

In the West, Dallas has just under $3.5M in cap space. Tyler Seguin had the ACL in his right knee surgically repaired on December 16th, so it’s only a matter of time before he’s placed on the SELTIR, as no one comes back from that surgery in less than 6.5 months. With a cap hit of $9.85M, cap problem solved.

In Edmonton, Nurse’s $9.25M cap hit more than covers the cost of Hamilton, plus the bonus of getting out of two additional years of Nurse’s cap hit provide all the more reason to make that trade.

Anaheim has nearly $11M, and San Jose over $15M to work with.

Where Does Dougie Land?

If it’s in the East, I’ll go with Detroit. At this point we may as well call him Stevie SurprYzerman. In the West, Dallas, they always find a way to make this deal, and Hamilton is the typical imperfect player that Jim Nill is always winning GM of the year for trading for (and then not winning the Stanley Cup – yes, I said it).

Let the rumours begin!